Tuesday, July 17, 2018

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: bears fight back as supply worries ease

WTI Crude Oil chart


The following comments were made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "The speculative nature of oil's price rise last week is visible on the sliding volume bars and the sharp price rise above the three daily EMAs. Such sudden price spikes are unsustainable."

Oil's price formed a 'diamond' reversal pattern that tends to mark a price top - from which a sharp downward breakout occurred on Wed. Jul 11. After a brief upward bounce from the 50 day EMA, oil's price had another sharp fall towards the 'support-resistance zone' (between 66 and 67).

Daily technical indicators have corrected overbought conditions, and are showing downward momentum. MACD is falling below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI and Slow stochastic are falling below their respective 50% levels. 

The rising 200 day EMA suggests that the bull market is alive. However, some more correction is likely.

Evidence is mounting that Saudi Arabia is heeding US President Donald Trump's call for OPEC to keep the oil market amply supplied and rein in prices.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price received support from its 20 week EMA, and closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators have corrected overbought conditions, and are showing downward momentum in bullish zones. Some more correction is possible.

Brent Crude Oil chart


The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil had formed a small 'double top' reversal pattern in May '18, followed by a correction within a 'flag' pattern. An upward breakout from the 'flag' in Jun '18 was followed by the formation of a second 'double top' reversal pattern.

A sharp downward breakout occurred from the second 'double top' on Wed. Jul 11, which dropped oil's price to the 73 level. A brief upward bounce faced resistance from the 50 day EMA. 

Another sharp fall towards the 'support-resistance zone' (between 70 and 71.30) on Mon. Jul 16 has put bulls on the back foot. However, oil's price continues to trade above its rising 200 day EMA in a bull market.

Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones, and showing downward momentum. Slow stochastic is seeking support from the edge of its oversold zone, and can trigger a technical bounce.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed below its 20 week EMA, but above its 50 week and 200 week EMAs in long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators are turning bearish. MACD is falling below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI and Slow stochastic are seeking support from their respective 50% levels.

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