Monday, July 2, 2018

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jun 29, 2018): bulls fail to make any headway against determined bears

S&P 500 index chart pattern


The following remarks appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "Slow stochastic has dived below its 50% level, and may be hinting at a further fall in the index towards its 50 day EMA. As long as 2680 is not breached, the past 3 months' bullish pattern of 'higher tops, higher bottoms' will remain intact."

The index started trading on Mon. Jun 25 with a downward 'gap' below its 20 day EMA and closed below its 50 day EMA. For the rest of the week, the index oscillated like a yo-yo - getting support from the 2700 level and facing resistance from 'GAP 2'.

On Thu. Jun 28, the index touched an intra-day low of 2692 but closed above 2700. The 2680 level has not been breached. The past 3 months' bullish pattern of 'higher tops, higher bottoms' remains intact. But for how much longer?

The past 5 months' trading appears to have formed a large 'symmetrical triangle' pattern. A fall towards the lower edge of the 'triangle' may be on the cards. What if the index falls below the 'triangle'? The possibility can't be ruled out - and long positions should be squared off in that event.

Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones, but not showing much downward momentum. Slow stochastic is inside its oversold zone, and can trigger a technical bounce. A convincing move above 2800 will put bears on the defensive.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index received support from its 20 week EMA, and closed above its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones, but turning bearish. MACD is about to cross below its signal line. RSI is about to fall below its 50% level. Slow stochastic is poised to drop from its overbought zone.

FTSE 100 index chart pattern

The daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 had touched a lifetime high of 7903.50 on May 22. Since then, the index has been correcting/consolidating within a 'flag' pattern above its 200 day EMA.

Such a 'flag' usually has bullish implications. In other words, the likely breakout from the 'flag' is upwards. When? That is a good question. A typical 'flag' consolidation lasts anywhere from 5 to 8 weeks. 5 weeks have elapsed within the 'flag' already. So, a breakout can be expected within the next couple of weeks.

Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones, but not showing much downward momentum. Some more near-term consolidation within the 'flag' is possible. (At the time of writing this post, the index is trading 50 points lower within the 'flag'.)

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index bounced up after testing support from its 20 week EMA, and closed above its  three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are correcting overbought conditions, but remain in bullish zones.

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