Monday, July 9, 2018

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jul 06, 2018): bulls testing resilience of bears

S&P 500 index chart pattern


For more than 5 months, the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 has been consolidating sideways within a large 'symmetrical triangle' pattern. The rising 200 day EMA indicates that the long-term bull market is very much alive.

From Apr '18 onwards, the index has formed a bullish pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms inside the 'triangle'. (At the time of writing this post, the index is testing resistance from the upper edge of the 'triangle'.)

In a holiday-shortened trading week, the index touched an intra-day low (below its 20 day and 50 day EMAs) of 2699 on Mon. Jul 2, but rallied to touch an intra-day high (above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs) of 2764 on Fri. Jul 6. Volumes were on the lower side.

Daily technical indicators have turned bullish. MACD has emerged from bearish zone, and is about to cross above its falling signal line. RSI has moved above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has risen sharply from its oversold zone.

A convincing breakout above the 'triangle' and a move above the 2800 level will put bulls back on track to regain control of the chart. Bears will try to make their progress as difficult as possible.

The index is trading above its three EMAs in a bull market. So, the advantage remains with bulls. However, their 'best laid plans can go awry' due to Trump's trade war with China, Europe, Canada, Mexico, India.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its three rising weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing any upward momentum.

FTSE 100 index chart pattern

After touching a lifetime high of 7903.50 on May 22 '18, the daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 has been correcting/consolidating within a bullish 'flag' pattern, from which the likely breakout is upwards.

Note that the index faced resistance from its 20 day EMA and fell below its 50 day EMA every day last week, but did not fall to the lower edge of the 'flag'. That increases the possibility of a breakout above the 'flag' soon.

(At the time of writing this post, the index is trading above its three EMAs and testing resistance from the upper edge of the 'flag'.)

Daily technical indicators are looking neutral to bullish. MACD and RSI are moving sideways with slight upward biases in their respective neutral zones. Slow stochastic has crossed above its 50% level.

As and when the index breaks out above the 'flag', note whether there is a surge in volumes. That will technically validate the upward breakout.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its three rising weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators have corrected overbought conditions, but remain in bullish zones.

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