Sunday, March 31, 2019

Sensex, Nifty charts (Mar 29, 2019): poised to touch new highs?

FIIs were net buyers of equity on the first four trading days, but were net sellers on Fri. Mar 29. Their total net buying was worth Rs 61.4 Billion during the week. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon., Tue. and Thu. (Mar 25, 26 and 28) but net buyers on the other two days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 4.3 Billion, as per provisional figures.

For the month of Mar '19, FIIs were net buyers of equity worth a massive Rs 323.7 Billion - their highest net buying in a month since Mar '17; DIIs were net sellers of equity worth Rs 139.3 Billion - their highest net selling in a month since Mar '16.

India's Current Account Deficit (CAD), at US $16.9 Billion during Q3 (Oct-Dec '18), widened to 2.5% of GDP from 2.1% a year ago due to a higher trade deficit. 

India's fiscal deficit (gap between expenditure and revenue) from Apr '18 to Feb '19 was Rs 8.51 Trillion - 134.2% of the budgeted amount of Rs 6.34 Trillion for FY 2018-19.

BSE Sensex index chart pattern



After a brief dip towards its rising 20 day EMA on Mon. Mar 25, the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex made another attempt to cross above the upper edge of the upward-sloping trading channel on Fri. Mar 29.

This time, the effort was almost successful. The index closed marginally above the channel, but formed a small 'doji' candlestick - showing indecision among bulls and bears on the last trading day of FY 2018-19.

Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is moving sideways above its rising signal line in bullish zone. ROC has crossed below its 10 day MA and dropped from its overbought zone. RSI and Slow stochastic are inside their respective overbought zones.

All four indicators are showing negative divergences by failing to touch higher tops with the index. Sensex is trading well above its three rising EMAs in a bull market. However, a pullback towards the 'gap' zone (between 37106 and 37231) formed on Tue. Mar 12 remains a possibility. 

After inventory pile-up at auto dealerships, there is now news of inventory pile-up at FMCG dealers and reluctance of distributors to stock more. Year-end considerations may be part of the reason, but there are definite signs of rural distress.

Here is an interesting stat: FIIs were net buyers of Indian equity during the month of March every year for the last 10 years. (They were net sellers in Mar '08 and Mar '09.) So, their net buying in Mar '19 is not a surprise - but the amount of buying is.

NSE Nifty index chart pattern



The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty closed higher for the sixth week in a row, on the back of strong FII buying. More importantly, the index managed to close just above the upward-sloping trading channel.

The breakout above the channel isn't a convincing one yet. Follow-up buying is required to propel Nifty to a new lifetime high. That shouldn't pose a problem as long as FIIs remain bullish.

Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line in bullish zone. ROC is above its 10 week MA, and is moving sideways inside its overbought zone. RSI has entered its overbought zone. Slow stochastic well inside its overbought zone.

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 29.01, its highest level during the month and well above its long-term average in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has dropped well inside its overbought zone. Some index correction or consolidation can be expected.

Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are just above the upper edges of their respective upward-sloping trading channels, and may face some correction or consolidation before moving up to touch new lifetime highs. Use dips to add.

Friday, March 29, 2019

Concentrated Vs. Diversified Portfolios: Comparing the Pros and Cons

Most articles on investing advise having a diversified investment portfolio. Diversifying investments is touted as reducing both risk and volatility. 

... One of the advantages of a more concentrated portfolio is that while it does increase risk, it also increases potential reward.

Read more at:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030916/concentrated-vs-diversified-portfolios-comparing-pros-and-cons.asp

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Mar 27, 2019)

FIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 26.3 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. & Tue. (Mar 25 & 26) but net buyers today. Their total net selling was worth Rs 0.74 Billion, as per provisional figures.

According to ICRA, Indian basmati rice exports may touch an all-time high of Rs 300 Billion in FY 2018-19, on the back of strong demand from Iran and firming up of prices. The previous highest export figure was Rs 293 Billion in FY 2013-14.

A consortium of Tata Group, GIC (Singapore's sovereign wealth fund) and SSG Capital Management will invest Rs 80 Billion to buy a stake in GMR Airports Ltd, which is a unit of GMR Infrastructure Ltd. GMR operates airports at Hyderabad, Delhi, Cebu (Philippines), and is building airports at Goa and Crete (Greece).


Note the following comments from the previous technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "The index is just 400 points away from its lifetime high. Charts tend to have 'memory'. Profit booking can emerge as the index approaches 11760."

The index had touched an intra-day high of 11573 on Fri. Mar 22 - moving above the upper edge of the upward-sloping trading channel. It closed 116 points lower due to profit booking, and formed a bearish 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close).

Nifty opened with a downward 'gap' and touched an intra-day low of 11311, as profit booking continued when trading resumed on Mon. Mar 25. A pullback towards the upper edge of the trading channel during the next two days touched a lower top of 11546 today.

The index closed 101 points lower to form another 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) even though FIIs and DIIs were both net buyers today. A fall to test support from the 46 points upward 'gap' formed on Mar 12 is a possibility.

Daily technical indicators are correcting overbought conditions. MACD is falling towards its rising signal line inside its overbought zone. RSI and Slow stochastic have slipped down from their respective overbought zones - hinting at some more correction.

All three EMAs are rising, and Nifty is trading above them in a bull market. It should be just a matter of time before the index rises to touch a new high. However, bears are putting up a stiff fight to defend the upper edge of the trading channel. Further upward progress may be slow.

Nifty's TTM P/E is at 28.05, which is much higher than its long-term average in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has received support at the edge of its overbought zone. Some consolidation or correction may follow.

On a longer-term weekly line chart (not shown), Nifty may be forming a large 'head and shoulders' reversal pattern, with a neckline at 10000. Such a pattern will get technically confirmed only if the index falls below 10000. A move above the lifetime high of 11760 - touched in Aug '18 - will negate the pattern.

If FIIs keep buying, a fall below 10000 will remain a distant dream. However, it is prudent to respect a large reversal pattern - till the pattern gets negated.

Sunday, March 24, 2019

Sensex, Nifty charts (Mar 22, 2019): hit pause buttons after month-long rallies

FIIs were net buyers of equity on all four trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 71.0 Billion during the week. DIIs were net sellers on all four trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 45.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.

According to IMF, India has been one of the fastest growing large economies in the world. Though important reforms have been implemented, more reforms are needed to sustain the growth rate.

Fitch Ratings have cut India's GDP growth forecast for FY 2019-20 to 6.8% from its previous estimate of 7% due to weaker-than-expected momentum in the economy.

BSE Sensex index chart pattern



In a 'Holi'day-shortened trading week, the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex continued its upward climb on the back of strong buying by FIIs. The index made back-to-back attempts (on Wed. Mar 20 and Fri. Mar 22) to breakout above the upward-sloping channel, but failed.

On Friday, the index touched an intra-day high of 38565 - its highest level in more than 6 months - but closed 400 points lower on profit booking. The formation of a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) can trigger some consolidation or correction.

Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is above its rising signal line in bullish zone, but its upward momentum has stalled. ROC has crossed below its rising 10 day MA inside its overbought zone, and showed negative divergence by falling during the week. RSI and Slow stochastic remain well inside their respective overbought zones.

All three EMAs are rising, and the index is trading well above them in a bull market. A likely pullback - to fill the 'gap' zone (between 37106 and 37231) formed on Tue. Mar 12 - can be an entry opportunity for those who missed out on the 3200 points rally from the Feb 19th low. 

Inventory pile-up at auto dealerships and production cuts announced by a few OEMs are clear signs that the Indian economy is slowing down. Small investors should think twice before joining the bandwagon of FII buying. Protecting profits is more important than making them.

NSE Nifty index chart pattern



The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty closed higher for the fifth week in a row. After breaking out above the upward-sloping channel intra-week, the index slipped down to close within the channel - forming a 'doji' candlestick.

Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line in bullish zone. ROC is above its 10 week MA and moving sideways inside its overbought zone. RSI is facing resistance from the edge of its overbought zone. Slow stochastic has re-entered its overbought zone.

After touching a high of 28.27 on Tue. Mar 19, Nifty's TTM P/E has slipped a bit to 28.08, which remains well above its long-term average in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is moving down towards its overbought zone. Some index consolidation or correction is likely.

Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are facing resistances from the upper edges of their respective upward-sloping trading channels, and are likely to consolidate or correct a little before moving up to test their lifetime highs. Dips can be used as entry opportunities.

Friday, March 22, 2019

How to Evaluate a Company's Balance Sheet

For stock investors, the balance sheet is an important financial statement that should be interpreted when considering an investment in a company. 

The balance sheet is a reflection of the assets and the liabilities owned by the company at a certain point in time. 

The strength of a company's balance sheet can be evaluated by three broad categories of investment-quality measurements: working capital adequacy, asset performance and capitalisation structure.

Read more at:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/06/assetperformance.asp

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Gold and Silver charts: weak recovery after sharp falls

Gold chart pattern


The daily bar chart pattern of Gold bounced up from the lower Bollinger Band and crossed above its 50 day EMA, but faced strong resistance from the middle Bollinger Band (20 day SMA, marked by green dotted line).

Gold's price is consolidating near the 1300 level, and managed to close well above its 200 day EMA in bull territory.

Daily technical indicators are looking neutral to bearish. MACD is moving sideways below its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is facing resistance from its 50% level. Slow stochastic remains in bearish zone after recovering from oversold condition.

After a sharp rise above 97.50 on Mar 7, the US Dollar index has dropped below 96.50. That helped gold's price to rally from its Mar 7 low of 1281.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory for the 12th week in a row. Weekly technical indicators are showing downward to sideways momentum in bullish zones, hinting at more consolidation or correction. 

Silver chart pattern


The following remark was made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Silver: "Slow stochastic has entered its oversold zone, and can trigger a pullback towards the 200 day EMA."

The expected pullback crossed above the 200 day and 50 day EMAs, but faced strong resistance from the 20 day SMA (middle Bollinger Band, marked by green dotted line). Silver's price is below its three EMAs in bear territory.

Daily technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD is facing resistance from its falling signal line. RSI is below its 50% level. Slow stochastic has emerged from its oversold zone, but is showing downward momentum.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), silver's price faced resistance from its 50 week EMA, formed a 'long legged doji' candlestick and closed well below its 200 week EMA in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators are in neutral zones, and showing sideways to downward momentum. Some more correction or consolidation may follow.

Monday, March 18, 2019

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Mar 15, 2019): trying to overcome resistance levels

S&P 500 index chart pattern


The daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 shows that bulls are trying their best to break free from bear domination. The index bounced up after receiving support from its 50 day EMA, and made another attempt to climb above the resistance zone (between 2800 and 2825).

After a brief setback on Thu. Mar 14, the index rose to touch an intra-day high of 2831 - its highest level in 5 months - but failed to sustain above the resistance zone. 

The index closed above its three EMAs in a bull market, gaining 2.9% on a weekly closing basis. Friday's volume spike may be a sign of a 'buying climax'.

Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is ready to cross above its falling signal line in bullish zone. RSI is rising towards its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is inside its overbought zone. 

All three indicators are showing negative divergences by failing to touch new highs with the index. Some consolidation or correction may follow.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market for the seventh week in a rowWeekly MACD has entered bullish zone. RSI has bounced up after receiving support from its 50% level. Slow stochastic is inside its overbought zone.

FTSE 100 index chart pattern



The daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 received good support from its rising 50 day EMA on Tue. Mar 12, and rose to touch an intra-day high of 7244 on Fri. Mar 15 - but failed to overcome strong resistance from its 200 day EMA.

The index gained 1.7% on a weekly closing basis. However, the volume spike on Friday may be a sign of a 'buying climax'.

Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is poised to cross above its falling signal line in bullish zone. RSI is rising above its 50% level. Stochastic has entered its overbought zone. FTSE may make another attempt to cross above its 200 day EMA. 

Uncertainty regarding the BrExit process continues. The British PM may ask for an extension of time (beyond Mar 29) at the EU summit on Mar 21.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index received support from its 20 week EMA and bounced up to close above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory. 

Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI has bounced up after receiving support from its 50% level. Stochastic has re-entered its overbought zone.

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Sensex, Nifty charts (Mar 15, 2019): flood of FII money washes away all resistances

FIIs are on a buying spree. Their total net buying was worth a massive Rs 148.2 Billion during the week. DIIs were net sellers on all five trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 74.0 Billion, as per provisional figures.

India's WPI based inflation rose to 2.93% in Feb '19 from 2.76% in Jan '19, due to rise in food prices. WPI based inflation was 2.74% in Feb '18.

India's trade deficit narrowed to US $9.6 Billion in Feb '19 from US $14.73 Billion in Jan '19. Merchandise exports grew 2.44% YoY to US $26.67 Billion while imports were down 5.41% to US $36.26 Billion.

BSE Sensex index chart pattern



The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex broke out above the Fibonacci resistance zone (refer last week's post) on Mon. Mar 11, and continued to soar higher as a flood of FII inflow fuelled a sharp rally.

The entire trading since the low of 33292 touched on Oct 26 '18 has formed a wide upward-sloping channel. The index faced resistance from the upper edge of the channel on Fri. Mar 15.

Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line in bullish zone. ROC, RSI and Slow stochastic are well inside their respective overbought zones. 

All three EMAs are rising, and the index is trading well above them in a bull market. However, overbought technical indicators are hinting at a pullback - towards the 'gap' zone (between 37106 and 37231) formed on Tue. Mar 12.

If FIIs continue buying, expect the index to move higher and test the previous (lifetime) top of 38990 touched on Aug 29 '18. 

Some correction from the current level will improve the technical 'health' of the chart, enabling those who missed out on the rally to enter. But corrections won't occur just because we want them to.

FIIs appear convinced that NDA will return to office for a second term. They have turned the stock market into a 'voting machine' and may be 'buying the rumour' only to 'sell on news'. 

NSE Nifty index chart pattern



The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty closed convincingly above the Fibonacci resistance zone (refer last week's post) on the back of strong buying by FIIs. It was the fourth straight week of higher close for the index.

The entire trading since the Oct '18 low of 10004.55 has formed a wide upward-sloping channel, which will remain in force till it gets breached. The index is facing resistance from the upper edge of the channel, and can pullback towards 11120.

Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line in bullish zone. ROC has crossed above its 10 week MA to enter overbought zone. RSI is poised to enter its overbought zone. Slow stochastic has re-entered its overbought zone, but is showing negative divergence by failing to rise higher with the index. 

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 28.01, which is well above its long-term average in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is moving down in neutral zone. Some more near-term index upside is possible.

Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts have broken out above their respective Fibonacci resistance zones. Both indices are trading within upward-sloping trading channels, and can be expected to move higher on the back of FII buying. Dips can be used to enter.

Friday, March 15, 2019

Ralph Acampora on Dow Theory (Video)

The godfather of technical analysis, Ralph Acampora, explains the value of Dow Theory. 

Acampora served as the New York Institute of Finance’s Director of Technical Analysis Studies and the Director of Technical Research at Knight Equity Markets. 

Read more at:
https://www.investopedia.com/video/play/ralph-acampora-dow-theory/

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Mar 13, 2019)

FIIs were on a buying spree on all three trading days this week. Their total net buying in equity was worth a massive Rs 90.1 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 44.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slowed to 1.7% in Jan '19 from 2.6% in Dec '18 due to deceleration in manufacturing, capital goods, consumer, non-durables and electricity sectors.  

Retail (CPI) inflation rose to 2.57% in Feb '19 from 1.97% in Jan '19 due to higher food prices (except vegetables). Lower IIP and higher CPI may force RBI to cut interest rates in its Apr '19 policy meeting.


The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has shot up like a rocket - fuelled by renewed FII buying. Announcement of dates of general elections, and likely return of NDA for a second term (as per recent polls) has given a big boost to bullish sentiment.

Note that the index has closed above the upper Bollinger Band two days in a row, and also formed a 'hanging man' candlestick today. The two together may be a warning of a potential downward reversal.

Daily technical indicators are looking bullish, and overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line inside its overbought zone. RSI has entered its overbought zone for the first time since Aug '18. Slow stochastic is moving sideways inside its overbought zone, and can trigger a correction.

Remember that an index (or stock) can remain overbought for long periods. That doesn't mean one should throw caution to the winds. The index is just 400 points away from its lifetime high. Charts tend to have 'memory'. Profit booking can emerge as the index approaches 11760.

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 27.80, which is way higher than its long-term average in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has emerged from its overbought zone, and can limit near-term index upside.

Polls have often proved incorrect - probably because of insufficient sample sizes among a heterogenous population. So, they should always be taken with a pinch of salt. 

The stock market - and specifically, FIIs - seem certain of a win for NDA. But there have been many a slip between the cup and the lip. NDA was supposed to be a shoo-in in 2004.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: consolidating below resistance levels

WTI Crude Oil chart


Note the following comment from the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "Some consolidation is likely before oil's price can attempt to move higher."

Resistance from the 58 level was tested intra-day on Mar 1, but oil's price formed a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) that triggered a sideways consolidation with a slight downward bias.

The 50 day EMA provided support. Oil's price closed above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs, but below its 200 day EMA in bear territory. Output cuts led by OPEC and good demand may enable oil's price to move above its 200 day EMA into bull territory. 

Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is moving sideways below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is treading water above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has fallen from its overbought zone. Some more consolidation is possible.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its 20 week EMA but below its 50 week and 200 week EMAs in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators are looking neutral to bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is facing resistance from its 50% level. Slow stochastic is inside its overbought zone.

Brent Crude Oil chart


The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil continued its expected sideways consolidation. Oil's price twice tested resistance from the sliding 200 day EMA (on Mar 1 and Mar 7), dropped to seek support from its rising 50 day EMA and closed just below its 200 day EMA in bear territory.

Strong volumes on down days (Mar 1 and Mar 8) show that bears are not going to give up ground easily.

Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is sliding down below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has fallen from its overbought zone. Some more consolidation is possible before oil's price can move above its 200 day EMA into bull territory.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its 20 week and 200 week EMAs in long-term bull territory, but faced resistance from its 50 week EMA. Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish to neutral.

Monday, March 11, 2019

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Mar 08, 2019): pullback rallies stall at resistance levels

S&P 500 index chart pattern


The following comment appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "...the index closed above its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market for the fifth week in a row, but has formed a long-legged doji candlestick pattern that can halt the rally."

On Mon. Mar 4, the index touched an intra-day high of 2817, but formed a 'reversal day' bar by closing below the resistance zone (between 2800 and 2825). That was just the excuse bears needed to swing into action.

The index corrected during the rest of the week, falling below its 20 day EMA but receiving support from its 50 day and 200 day EMAs. The 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA has not been a convincing one. The index lost 2.2% on a weekly closing basis.

Daily technical indicators are looking bearish after correcting overbought conditions. MACD is falling below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is seeking support from its 50% level. Slow stochastic has fallen sharply below its 50% level. 

Signs of a global economic slowdown - if not a recession - and a not-so-great jobs report have taken the wind out of bullish sails. A possible fall below the 200 day EMA can lead to more correction.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market for the sixth week in a row, but has formed a large 'reversal' bar (higher high, lower close) that can trigger a correction

Weekly MACD is in neutral zone. RSI has formed a small 'rounding top' reversal pattern and dropped towards its 50% level. Slow stochastic has started to correct inside its overbought zone.

FTSE 100 index chart pattern


The daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 rose to touch an intra-day high of 7212 on Wed. Mar 6, but fell short of testing resistance from its 200 day EMA. The index dropped to seek support from its rising 50 day EMA, and closed just above 7100 - losing only 2 points for the week.

Daily technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD is falling below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI has again dropped to seek support from its 50% level. Stochastic is falling towards its oversold zone. 

The unresolved BrExit deal continues to affect bullish sentiments. The index can consolidate or correct some more. 

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index received support from its 20 week EMA but faced resistance from its 50 week EMA, and closed above its 200 week EMA in long-term bull territory. 

Weekly technical indicators are giving conflicting signals. MACD is rising above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is seeking support from its 50% level. Stochastic has slipped down from its overbought zone.

Sunday, March 10, 2019

Sensex, Nifty charts (Mar 08, 2019): testing important resistance levels

FIIs were net buyers of equity on all four trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 41.2 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. (Mar 5), but net sellers on the last three trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 16.9 Billion, as per provisional figures.

Government's indirect tax revenues will be under pressure during FY 2018-19 as there could be a further fall in GST revenue. Direct tax numbers are likely to be around the revised target. The fiscal deficit figure of 3.4% will be met as there will be some savings on expenditure.

Inflows into equity mutual funds (including ELSS) declined 17% in Feb '19 to Rs 51.2 Billion from Rs 61.6 Billion in Jan '19. The decline is almost 60% from Oct '18 inflow of Rs 126.2 Billion. However, SIP inflows have remained steady.

BSE Sensex index chart pattern



The following comments appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "Sensex closed above its three EMAs in bull territory, but needs to move convincingly above the Fibonacci resistance zone if bulls are to regain control of the chart. Bears are doing their level best to ensure that doesn't happen any time soon."

In a holiday-shortened week, there was strong buying by FIIs. The index rose to test the upper edge of the Fibonacci resistance zone by touching an intra-day high of 36830 on Thu. Mar 7. Bears ensured that the index dropped to close about 140 points below the upper edge of the resistance zone.

The index can make another attempt to climb above the resistance zone, provided FIIs keep buying. Slowdown in the global economy and the ongoing BrExit saga may dampen their bullish fervour.  

Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line in bullish zone. ROC has fallen from its overbought zone towards its rising 10 day MA. RSI is moving up towards its overbought zone, but its upward momentum is weakening. Slow stochastic has started correcting inside its overbought zone.

Bulls have the advantage as all three EMAs are rising, and the index is trading above them in bull territory. However, a corrective move seems likely. Many mid-caps and small-caps rose sharply during the week, and can face profit booking.

The government is on a publicity overdrive - announcing grand schemes worth trillions and giving sops to different sections of citizens - before general election dates are announced. Hope it doesn't become a case of 'too little, too late'.

Thanks to satellite TV, Internet and the proliferation of mobile phones, information dissemination has become instantaneous. Voters have become more savvy. Bullish sentiment can get a beating in the unlikely event of Modi not getting a second term. So, don't go 'all in' just yet.

NSE Nifty index chart pattern




The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty closed higher for the third straight week, and is trading well above its 20 week and 50 week EMAs in bull territory. But it failed to move above the Fibonacci resistance zone.

The index touched an intra-week high of 11089 - testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 11090 - but closed inside the resistance zone, with a weekly gain of 1.6%.

Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones. MACD is starting to move up in neutral zone. ROC is facing resistance from its sliding 10 week MA. Slow stochastic is rising above its 50% level. However, RSI is falling towards its 50% level, and showing negative divergence by failing to rise with the index.

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 27.05, which is well above its long-term average in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has emerged from its overbought zone, and can trigger a corrective move.

Bottomline? For more than 4 months, Sensex and Nifty charts have been stuck in sideways ranges after sharp corrections during Sep-Oct '18. Both indices closed above their long-term moving averages in bull territories, but faced strong resistances from the upper edges of their respective Fibonacci resistance zones. Index consolidations may continue till the general elections.

Friday, March 8, 2019

Combining Trend and Countertrend Indicators

Each trading day the struggle between those attempting to buy or sell into an established trend and those attempting to buy near a low and sell near a high plays out. 

Both types of traders have very convincing arguments as to why their approach is superior. 

Yet, interestingly, in the long run, one of the best approaches might just involve melding these two seemingly disparate methods together. 

Read more at:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/10/trend-following-countertrend.asp