FIIs
were net sellers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 69.2 Billion. DIIs
were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Fri. (May 18 and 22), but net buyers on the other three trading days. Their total net buying was
worth Rs 39.38 Billion, as per provisional figures.
RBI preponed the MPC meeting to reduce repo rate by 40 bps (to 4%) in a bid to inject more liquidity into the monetary system, after the market was disappointed by PM's Rs 20 Trillion 'stimulus' announcement. Rising food inflation and looming recession can lead to stagflation.
India's crude oil imports in Apr '20 fell 12.4% YoY to 17.28 million tonnes, thanks to low demand during the corona virus lockdown. Oil product imports dropped 6.5% to 3.35 million tonnes. However, refined products exports rose 37% YoY to 6.04 million tonnes.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex fell sharply on Mon. May 18 and slipped below the psychological 30000 level intra-day. It rallied for the next three days, but failed to overcome resistance from the sliding 20 day EMA. The index closed 425 points (1.4%) lower for the week.
Sensex had touched an intermediate top of 33887 on Apr 30, retracing
49.6% of its fall from the Jan 20 top (42274) to the Mar 24 low (25639). By stopping just short of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, and forming an 'island reversal' pattern thereafter, the bear market rally got
terminated.
All three EMAs are falling, and the index is trading below them. The bear market has completed three months, and there are still no signs of bottom formation. Corporate performance during the first half of the financial year will not be good. The second half will depend on how well the corona virus gets contained.
Daily
technical indicators are giving mixed signals. MACD has slipped below its signal line in neutral zone. RSI has hovering below its
50% level. Slow stochastic has risen sharply from its oversold zone and crossed above its 50% level. Some near-term index upside is a possibility.
RIL's huge rights issue at a substantial premium is open for subscription till June 9th. Don't expect the index to fall much till then.
Many analysts are already calling a bottom at the Mar '20 low. Previous bear markets have never ended at the first low. Small investors should be prepared for a long haul. If you have spare cash, invest in small tranches.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty gave a thumbs down to FM's explanations about the so-called Rs 20 Trillion economic stimulus, and closed below its three weekly EMAs for the 11th straight
week. The index lost about 98 points (1.1%) on a weekly closing basis.
The
sharp bear market rally from the Mar '20 low of 7511 to the
Apr 30th intermediate top of 9889 retraced 48.3% of the fall from the
Jan '20 top. Nifty fell just short of the 50% Fibonacci retracement
level - terminating the rally. It has since closed lower for three consecutive weeks, but managed to stay above the psychological 9000 level.
The
20 week EMA crossed below the 200 week EMA some time back. All three weekly EMAs are falling, which is a sign of a long-term
bear market. The 'death cross' of the 50 week EMA below the 200 week
EMA - which will technically confirm a long-term bear market - is awaited but appears imminent.
Weekly technical indicators are in bearish zones. MACD is moving sideways below its falling signal line inside oversold zone. RSI is sliding down in bearish zone. Slow stochastic has dropped sharply below its 50% level. Some more index downside is likely.
Nifty's TTM P/E has remained flat at 20.97 but above its long-term average.
The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is rising inside neutral zone, hinting at near-term index correction or consolidation.
Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are trading well below their respective 200 day and 200 week EMAs in bear markets. Positive corona virus cases continue to increase rapidly after easing of lockdown restrictions. India's economy is slipping into a recession. Protect your cash. Invest only in small quantities.
WTI Crude Oil chart
The following comment was made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "Falling volumes during the technical bounce may encourage bears to defend the 200 day EMA vigorously."
Oil's price dropped below its 50 day and 20 day EMAs, but bounced up after receiving support from the 56 level. After crossing above all three EMAs into bull territory, oil's price formed a small 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) and pulled back to its 200 day EMA.
Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones. MACD is rising above its signal line. RSI is above its 50% level but showing slight downward momentum. Slow stochastic re-entered its overbought zone, but is slipping down.
Bears are giving ground grudgingly. Oil's price has formed a bullish pattern of 'higher tops, higher bottoms' after forming a 'double bottom' reversal pattern inside the support zone between 50 and 52. A convincing price move above 67 is necessary if bulls are to regain control of the chart.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price managed to close just above its 200 week EMA in long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators are in neutral zones, and not showing much upward momentum. Falling volumes during the recent rally should be a concern for bulls.
Brent Crude Oil chart
The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil dropped below its 20 day EMA into bear territory, but bounced up after receiving good support from the 62 level.
Oil's price rallied past its 20 day and 50 day EMAs, only to face strong resistance from its 200 day EMA. Strong volumes on recent down days show that bears are active.
Daily technical indicators are looking neutral to bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line in neutral zone. RSI is moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic re-entered its overbought zone, but is falling down. Some more consolidation is likely.
Bears are giving bulls a hard time. Oil's price has formed a bullish pattern of 'higher tops, higher bottoms' after forming a 'double bottom' reversal pattern inside the support zone between 58 and 60. A convincing price move above 75 is required for bulls to regain control of the chart.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its 200 week and 20 week EMAs, but just below its 50 week EMA in long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators are looking neutral to bullish. MACD is below its sliding signal line in neutral zone. RSI is facing resistance from its 50% level. Slow stochastic is rising towards its 50% level.
WTI Crude Oil chart
The daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil bounced up from the support zone (between 50-52) and rose smartly above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs before facing stiff resistance at the 200 day EMA.
After two consecutive closes just above the 200 day EMA in bull territory on Jun 26 and 27, oil's price dropped down to seek support from its 50 day EMA on Jun 28. It bounced up to close just below its 200 day EMA on Jul 1.
Daily technical indicators are looking neutral to bullish. MACD is above its rising signal line in neutral zone. RSI is moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is sliding down inside its overbought zone.
Falling volumes during the technical bounce may encourage bears to defend the 200 day EMA vigorously.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price faced strong resistance from its 200 week EMA and dropped to close just above its 20 week EMA in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical indicators are at their respective neutral zones. Only Slow stochastic is showing upward momentum.
Brent Crude Oil chart
The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil bounced up from the support zone (between 58-60) and rose above its 20 day EMA, only to face strong resistance from its 50 day EMA.
For the past seven trading sessions, oil's price has been consolidating sideways between its 20 day and 50 day EMAs. On Jul 1, it formed a long-legged 'doji' candlestick pattern that indicates indecision among bulls and bears.
Daily technical indicators are giving conflicting signals. MACD is rising above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is moving sideways along its 50% level. Slow stochastic is poised to drop down from its overbought zone. Some more consolidation or correction is likely.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price faced resistance from its 200 week EMA, and closed below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territory for the fifth straight week. Weekly technical indicators are in bearish zones. Only Slow stochastic is showing some upward momentum.
WTI Crude Oil chart
The following comment appeared in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "The imminent 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a bear market."
The 'death cross' (marked by grey oval) has ended the brief foray of oil's price into bull territory during Apr-May '19. The support zone between 50-52 has provided temporary solace to bulls.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and oversold. MACD is moving sideways below its signal line in oversold zone. RSI has emerged weakly from its oversold zone. Slow stochastic has dropped back inside its oversold zone.
All three EMAs are falling, and oil's price is trading below them in a bear market. Bears are likely to continue with their 'sell on rise' strategy.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price has closed well below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical indicators are in bearish zones, and showing downward momentum.
Brent Crude Oil chart
For the past two week's, the daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil has consolidated sideways in a range between 60-64. The 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA (marked by grey oval) has technically confirmed a return to a bear market.
The support zone between 58-60 has helped oil's price to stabilise after a steep fall. However, it may only be a temporary respite for bulls. A slowing global economy will not be able to boost oil demand. Further downside is likely.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and oversold. MACD is moving sideways below its signal line in oversold zone. RSI has bounced up weakly from the edge of its oversold zone. Slow stochastic has dropped back inside its oversold zone.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territory for the third week in a row. Weekly technical indicators are in bearish zones, and showing downward momentum - hinting at some more consolidation or correction.
WTI Crude Oil chart
The daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil consolidated sideways with a slight upward bias during the past two weeks. Oil's price closed above its three EMAs in bull territory, but failed to close above the 'support-resistance zone' (between 62 and 64).
Note that trading volumes during recent down days have exceeded volumes on up days. That is a sign that bears are active and following a 'sell on rise' strategy.
Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is about to cross above its falling signal line in neutral zone. RSI has moved above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is rising above its 50% level.
Oil's price may rise further due to escalating US-Iran tensions and concerns about US-China trade war.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price bounced up after receiving strong support from its converging weekly EMAs, and closed in long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing much upward momentum.
Brent Crude Oil chart
The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil consolidated sideways with a slight upward bias before breaking out to close above the 'support-resistance zone' (between 70 and 72) on Thu. May 16.
Bears started to 'sell on rise'. Oil's price slipped down to close just below 72, but above its three EMAs in bull territory.
Daily technical indicators are looking bullish but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is facing resistance from its sliding signal line in bullish zone. RSI is above its 50% level, but moving down. Slow stochastic has moved up towards its overbought zone, but its upward momentum has weakened.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing much upward momentum - hinting at some more consolidation.
WTI Crude Oil chart
After a bit of sideways consolidation near the upper edge of the 'support-resistance zone' (between 62 and 64), the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil bounced up to touch a high of 66.60 on Apr 23 - its highest level in nearly 6 months.
The 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA technically confirmed a return to a bull market. However, overbought technical indicators, which showed negative divergences by touching lower tops, triggered a correction.
Oil's price dropped below the 'support-resistance zone' and its 20 day and 50 day EMAs, but bounced up after testing support from its 200 day EMA. Formation of a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close) and a pullback inside the 'support-resistance zone' ought to encourage bulls.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish after correcting overbought conditions. MACD is falling below its signal towards neutral zone. RSI has dropped below its 50% level. Slow stochastic has fallen to the edge of its oversold zone.
Expect volatility and some consolidation in oil prices as the US government threatens to shut down Iran's oil exports by sending war ships to the Middle East.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price bounced up after receiving strong support from its converging weekly EMAs, and closed in long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is rising above its signal line. RSI is moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has fallen from its overbought zone, and can trigger some consolidation or correction.
Brent Crude Oil chart
After a few days of sideways consolidation near the upper edge of the 'support-resistance zone' (between 70 and 72), the daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil broke out upwards on Apr 22, and rose to touch a 6 months high of 75.60 on Apr 25.
The 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA technically confirmed a return to a bull market. However, overbought technical indicators, and formation of a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close), triggered a correction below the 'support-resistance zone' and the 20 day and 50 day EMAs.
Oil's price has since pulled back inside the 'support-resistance zone', and is expected to consolidate till Middle Eastern supplies stabilise.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish to neutral after correcting overbought conditions. MACD is falling below its sliding signal line towards neutral zone. RSI is seeking support from its 50% level. Slow stochastic has fallen below its 50% level.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price bounced up after testing support from its converging 20 week and 50 week EMAs, and closed in long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is rising above its signal line. RSI is moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has slipped down from its overbought zone, and can trigger some consolidation or correction.
FIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon., Wed. and Thu. (Apr 22, 24 and 25), but net sellers on the other two days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 45.2 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. and Fri. (Apr 23 and 26) but net sellers on the other three days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 36.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.
Five years after launch, the Jan Dhan Yojana scheme has achieved a total balance of nearly Rs 1 Trillion. The scheme got a boost from demonetisation in Nov '16, and gained rapid pace in the last 6 months - leading to scepticism on the possible link between elections and spurt in balances.
A dark storm cloud (read: rising oil prices) has gathered over the Indian stock market. Prices in petrol pumps have not been revised upwards in proportion to the rise in international oil prices due to the ongoing election. After May 23, that cloud is going to burst upon Indian consumers.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The following remark appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "Some more consolidation near the upper edge of the trading channel, and/or a drop towards the rising 20 day EMA are possibilities."
Sometimes, the index does exactly what you expect it to do. Despite the volatility and the alternate days of sharp rise followed by equally sharp fall, all that Sensex managed was a sideways consolidation that faced resistance from the upper edge of the trading channel and received support from the 20 day EMA.
The entire trading during the month of Apr '19 has occurred within a small 'diamond' pattern, which can be a trend reversal pattern at a market top. However, a 'diamond' can also act as a continuation pattern. So, it is better to wait for the eventual breakout before taking any buy/sell decision.
A 'diamond' pattern has measuring implications. The height of the 'diamond' - about 1200 points - will be the downward or upward target from the eventual breakout point. (For a possible downward breakout, the long-term support level of 37690 - marked by blue dotted line - can come into the picture.)
Daily technical indicators are giving conflicting signals. MACD is falling below its signal line in bullish zone. ROC has crossed above its 10 day MA to enter bullish zone. RSI and Slow stochastic are at their respective neutral zones.
All four technical indicators showed negative divergences by failing to touch new highs when the index touched its lifetime high of 39487 on Apr 18. That is usually an advance warning of a possible change in trend.
FIIs are on a buying spree. A flood of liquidity can throw bearish technical signals out the window. But note that they were net sellers on two days during the week.
Near a lifetime index high, discretion should be the better part of valour. Sensex is trading at a P/E of 29.5 - well above its long-term average. The downside risk is increasing by the day.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
There is good (bullish) news and bad (bearish) news visible on the weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty. First, the good news: the index closed above the upward-sloping trading channel at a new lifetime high closing level of 11755.
Now, the bad news: For the second week in a row, the index failed to close above its Aug '18 top of 11760. Also, the index has formed a weekly 'hanging man' candlestick that usually has bearish implications.
Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD and ROC are rising inside their respective overbought zones. RSI and Slow stochastic are moving sideways inside their respective overbought zones - showing negative divergences by failing to touch new highs with the index.
Remember that an index can remain overbought for long periods. However, the two previous occasions when all four technical indicators were inside their overbought zones - in Jan '18 and Aug '18 - sharp corrections had followed.
History may not repeat itself - but many small investors are doomed by repeating their mistakes of becoming too bullish at a market top.
Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 29.34, which is well above its long-term average in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is oscillating in neutral zone. Some more consolidation or correction is possible.
Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are still hovering near the upper edges of their respective upward-sloping trading channels, and can consolidate or correct some more before moving up further. Stay invested, but control any impulse to buy big.
WTI Crude Oil chart
Note the following comments from the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "The zone between 62 and 64 had acted as a support zone during Apr-Aug '18. It is likely to act as a resistance zone for a while."
Oil's price managed to move above the resistance zone, and closed above the 64 level on Apr 8 and 10. Sliding volumes showed lack of follow-up buying. Oil's price has drifted down inside the resistance zone (between 60-62).
The impending 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a return to a bull market. Expect oil's price to move higher after a bit of consolidation or correction.
Daily technical indicators are correcting overbought conditions. MACD is about to cross below its rising signal line in overbought zone. RSI has dropped from its overbought zone. Slow stochastic has fallen to the edge of its overbought zone.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory for the third week in a row. Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic remains well inside its overbought zone, and can trigger some more correction or consolidation.
Brent Crude Oil chart
The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil entered the resistance zone between 70-72 as expected, but has been consolidating sideways after failing to cross above the 72 level.
Oil's price is trading above its three EMAs in bull territory. The impending 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a return to a bull market.
Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is rising above its sliding signal line in overbought zone. RSI has dropped down from its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is inside its overbought zone.
Some more consolidation is possible before oil's price makes an attempt to move above the resistance zone.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory for the third straight week. Weekly MACD and RSI are in bullish zones. Slow stochastic is well inside its overbought zone, and can trigger some more consolidation or correction.
WTI Crude Oil chart
The daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil has broken out above its 200 day EMA into bull territory. The possibility was mentioned in the previous post.
The zone between 62 and 64 had acted as a support zone during Apr-Aug '18. It is likely to act as a resistance zone for a while.
Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is trying to cross above its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is is poised to enter its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is inside its overbought zone.
All three indicators are showing negative divergences by failing to rise higher with oil's price. Some consolidation or correction is possible before oil's price can overcome the resistance zone.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory after 5 months. Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line towards neutral zone. RSI is moving above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is well inside its overbought zone, and can trigger some correction/consolidation.
Brent Crude Oil chart
The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil has broken out convincingly above its 200 day EMA (with good volume support) and appears headed for the resistance zone between 70 and 72.
Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is below its sliding signal line in bullish zone. RSI is moving up towards its overbought zone. Slow stochastic has fallen from its overbought zone once again.
All three indicators are showing negative divergences by touching lower tops though oil's price has moved higher. Some consolidation or correction is possible before oil's price can move above the resistance zone.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish and showing upward momentum.
WTI Crude Oil chart
Note the following comment from the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "Some consolidation is likely before oil's price can attempt to move higher."
Resistance from the 58 level was tested intra-day on Mar 1, but oil's price formed a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) that triggered a sideways consolidation with a slight downward bias.
The 50 day EMA provided support. Oil's price closed above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs, but below its 200 day EMA in bear territory. Output cuts led by OPEC and good demand may enable oil's price to move above its 200 day EMA into bull territory.
Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is moving sideways below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is treading water above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has fallen from its overbought zone. Some more consolidation is possible.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its 20 week EMA but below its 50 week and 200 week EMAs in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators are looking neutral to bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is facing resistance from its 50% level. Slow stochastic is inside its overbought zone.
Brent Crude Oil chart
The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil continued its expected sideways consolidation. Oil's price twice tested resistance from the sliding 200 day EMA (on Mar 1 and Mar 7), dropped to seek support from its rising 50 day EMA and closed just below its 200 day EMA in bear territory.
Strong volumes on down days (Mar 1 and Mar 8) show that bears are not going to give up ground easily.
Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is sliding down below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has fallen from its overbought zone. Some more consolidation is possible before oil's price can move above its 200 day EMA into bull territory.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its 20 week and 200 week EMAs in long-term bull territory, but faced resistance from its 50 week EMA. Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish to neutral.
WTI Crude Oil chart
Just when it appeared that bears were getting the upper hand, the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil rallied smartly past its 20 day and 50 day EMAs and the 'support/resistance zone' (between 53 and 55).
The bullish fervour didn't last long. The rally failed to reach its sliding 200 day EMA, and pulled back to the 'support/resistance zone' before bouncing up. Such a pullback usually provides a buying opportunity.
Oil's price needs to close convincingly above the Fibonacci resistance zone between 59 and 63 (which are the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the fall from the Oct '18 top of 76 to the Dec '18 low of 42) before bulls can regain control of the chart.
Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is seeking support from its signal line in bullish zone. RSI is above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has fallen from its overbought zone. Some consolidation is likely before oil's price can attempt to move higher.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its 20 week EMA but below its 50 week and 200 week EMAs in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical indicators are looking neutral to bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is facing resistance from its 50% level. Slow stochastic has entered its overbought zone.
Brent Crude Oil chart
After receiving good support from its rising 20 day EMA and the 61 level, the daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil moved smartly above the 'support/resistance zone' between 61 and 63.
Oil's price faced strong resistance from its sliding 200 day EMA, and dropped sharply towards its rising 20 day EMA before bouncing up.
For bulls to regain control of the chart, oil's price needs to close convincingly above the Fibonacci resistance zone between 68 and 72 (which are the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the fall from the Oct '18 top of 86 to the Dec '18 low of 50).
Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is seeking support from its rising signal line in bullish zone. RSI is above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has fallen from its overbought zone. Some consolidation is likely before oil's price can attempt to move higher.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its 20 week and 200 week EMAs in long-term bull territory, but is facing resistance from its 50 week EMA. 'Death cross' of the 50 week EMA below the 200 week EMA has been averted for now. Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish to neutral.
