Except Jul 1, FIIs have been net sellers every single day during Jul '19. Their total net selling of equity during the month was worth Rs 198.70 Billion. Except Jul 1, DIIs have been net buyers every single day during Jul '19. Their total net buying of equity during the month was worth Rs 203.90 Billion, as per provisional figures.
The government's fiscal deficit during Apr-Jun '19 touched Rs 4.32 Trillion, which is 61.4% of the budget estimate of Rs 7.03 Trillion for FY 2019-20. During Apr-Jun '18, the fiscal deficit was 68.7% of the budget estimate. Revenue receipts during Apr-Jun '19 was 14.4% of the budget estimate against 15.5% during Apr-Jun '18.
The sad episode of the Cafe Coffee Day founder has been a blow to the coffee sector, and brought 'ease of doing business' - or the lack of it - to the fore. Entrepreneurs take huge risks to set up businesses, and provide jobs to many, but tax terrorism can push the honest ones over the edge. The dishonest flout every rule and get away with it.
The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty is teetering on the brink of a bear market. On Jul 8, 9 and 10 the index had breached the lower Bollinger Band. The subsequent technical bounce faced strong resistance from the middle Bollinger Band (i.e. 20 day SMA - dotted green line) on Jul 17.
Nifty dropped sharply to the lower Bollinger Band on Jul 19. Since then, the index has been sliding down along the lower Bollinger Band - breaching technical supports in quick succession on the back of selling by FIIs.
Two important technical points to note are: (1) a fall below the 200 day EMA (in blue) into bear territory on Jul 24-25, followed by a pullback on Jul 26; (2) a fall below the 200 day SMA (in red) and the previous (May 14) low of 11108 on Jul 30, followed by a pullback today.
Daily technical indicators are looking oversold. MACD is below its signal line and is falling inside its oversold zone. RSI is trying to emerge from its oversold zone. Slow stochastic is moving sideways well inside its oversold zone. Nifty may try to move up to the 11300-11400 zone. Expect bears to 'sell on rise'.
Nifty's TTM P/E has moved down to 27.42, but remains well inside its overbought zone and much higher than its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has risen high inside its oversold zone - hinting at some near-term index upside.
The breaches of the 200 day EMA and 200 day SMA are clear indications that Nifty is ready to fall into a bear market. The technical confirmation of a bear market will be provided by the 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA.
Though the 50 day EMA is falling towards the 200 day EMA, it is still 260 points above the long-term moving average. That gives bulls a bit of wiggle room. But avoid bottom fishing. Use any near-term upside to book profits.
FIIs are rushing to the exit door. They were net sellers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 30.3 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all five days, but couldn't match FII selling. Their total net buying was worth Rs 25.0 Billion, as per provisional figures.
India's Current Account balance deficit grew to US $68 Billion in FY 2018-19 from $49 Billion in FY 2017-18 as per IMF. Overall international reserves stood at $411.9 Billion on Mar 31 '19, down by $12.5 Billion from Mar 31 '18.
According to IHS Markit India Business Outlook, business sentiment fell to its lowest level since Jun '16, as companies worried about a slowing economy, water shortage and government policies.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The following comments appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "The index appears to be forming a small, bearish 'flag' pattern that often forms midway during a sharp correction. If the pattern plays out, the index can completely fill GAP2, and test support from the up trend line and its 200 day EMA."
After a sharp two days' correction below a bearish 'rising wedge' pattern, Sensex formed a bearish 'flag' pattern from which it has broken out downwards - filling about 50% of GAP2 (formed on May 20).
The index is trading above the up trend line (drawn through its Oct 26 '18 and Feb 19 '19 lows) and its 200 day EMA in a bull market. But the chart structure has turned distinctly bearish.
Sensex had touched a lifetime high of 40312 on Jun 4 '19. Since then, the index has not only formed a bearish pattern of 'lower tops, lower bottoms', it has also broken out below two bearish patterns (viz. 'rising wedge' and 'flag'). That is a clear sign that bulls are gradually yielding ground.
A confluence of supports - from the lower edge of GAP2, the blue up trend line and the 200 day EMA - should protect Sensex downside in the near term. If the index falls below its 200 day EMA, it can slip into a bear market.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD is falling below its signal line in bearish zone. ROC is falling below its 10 day MA in bearish zone. RSI has dropped to the edge of its oversold zone. Slow stochastic is falling towards its oversold zone after emerging from it. Any technical bounce may induce bear selling.
Stock market participants were hoping for some relief on 20% tax on share buybacks and the extra surcharge on higher-bracket tax payers that affected about 40% of FIIs. Finance Minister quashed such hopes by tabling the Finance Bill in Parliament without any further relief on taxes.
It has been clarified by the government that relief announced for buying electric vehicles will apply only to commercial vehicles and not to personal transportation. That should effectively end any possibility of consumers switching to electric vehicles.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The following comments appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "...the index is below a downward-sloping trend line, and has formed a bearish pattern of 'lower tops, lower bottoms'. Some more correction and/or consolidation is likely."
The index dropped sharply below its 20 week EMA to completely fill the upward 'gap' formed in the week beginning on May 20. Twin downside support can be expected from the blue up trend line and the 50 week EMA.
Any technical bounce from the current level, or from the supports mentioned above, is unlikely to last long. Bears are seizing control of the chart and are likely to 'sell on rise' at every opportunity.
Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD has crossed below its signal line, and is falling in bullish zone. ROC is facing resistance from its falling 10 week MA in neutral zone. RSI is sliding below its 50% level. Slow stochastic is ready to fall below its 50% level.
Nifty's TTM P/E has moved down to 27.92 - its lowest level this month - but remains above its long-term average in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is moving up in neutral zone. Some more near-term index downside is possible.
Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are slipping into the paws of bears. Tax proposals in the budget and a visibly slowing economy have combined to dampen bullish sentiments. Q1 (Jun '19) results declared so far have failed to create much buying enthusiasm. Time to batten down the hatches and wait for the bearish sentiment to pass.
WTI Crude Oil chart
The following comment appeared in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "The imminent 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a bear market."
The 'death cross' (marked by grey oval) has ended the brief foray of oil's price into bull territory during Apr-May '19. The support zone between 50-52 has provided temporary solace to bulls.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and oversold. MACD is moving sideways below its signal line in oversold zone. RSI has emerged weakly from its oversold zone. Slow stochastic has dropped back inside its oversold zone.
All three EMAs are falling, and oil's price is trading below them in a bear market. Bears are likely to continue with their 'sell on rise' strategy.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price has closed well below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical indicators are in bearish zones, and showing downward momentum.
Brent Crude Oil chart
For the past two week's, the daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil has consolidated sideways in a range between 60-64. The 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA (marked by grey oval) has technically confirmed a return to a bear market.
The support zone between 58-60 has helped oil's price to stabilise after a steep fall. However, it may only be a temporary respite for bulls. A slowing global economy will not be able to boost oil demand. Further downside is likely.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and oversold. MACD is moving sideways below its signal line in oversold zone. RSI has bounced up weakly from the edge of its oversold zone. Slow stochastic has dropped back inside its oversold zone.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territory for the third week in a row. Weekly technical indicators are in bearish zones, and showing downward momentum - hinting at some more consolidation or correction.
S&P 500 index chart pattern
Note the following comment from last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "Some more correction, and a drop towards the support zone between 2700-2725 is likely."
The index corrected further below its 200 day EMA on Mon. Jun 3, but received good support from the zone between 2700-2725. A 'V' shaped technical bounce propelled the index above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs back into bull territory by Thu. Jun 6.
On Fri. Jun 7, the index breached the (purple) down trend line after spending 5 weeks below it, and closed with a 121 points (4.4%) weekly gain. The week's rally was accompanied by sliding volumes. A pullback towards the down trend line is a possibility.
Daily technical indicators are looking bullish, and showing upward momentum. MACD has crossed above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI has moved above its 50% level after bouncing up from the edge of its oversold zone. Slow stochastic is rising sharply towards its overbought zone.
The rally may have been triggered by short covering. So don't be surprised if bears start to 'sell on rise' to regain control.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index formed a large 'reversal' bar (lower low, higher close) and closed above its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are turning bullish. MACD is below its signal line in bullish zone, but has stopped falling. RSI has moved above its 50% level after falling below it. Slow stochastic is below its 50% level, but has stopped falling.
FTSE 100 index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 touched a low of 7080 on Mon. Jun 3, but formed a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close) that triggered a 'V' shaped pullback rally.
By not falling below 7000, the 'cup and handle' pattern (refer this post) remains alive. The index closed above its three EMAs in bull territory, gaining 170 points (2.4%) on a weekly closing basis.
The bearish 'head and shoulders' pattern (mentioned in last week's post) will get negated if the index can close convincingly above its previous (May 22) top of 7373.
Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and showing upward momentum. MACD has crossed above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI has moved above its 50% level. Stochastic has entered its overbought zone.
Near-term index upside may be limited. Sliding volumes during last week's rally can encourage bears to 'sell on rise'.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index formed a large 'reversal' bar (lower low, higher close) and closed above its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones, and showing upward momentum.
WTI Crude Oil chart
The daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil has lost its valiant struggle to move above the 'support-resistance zone' between 62-64. Bears took control of the chart - thanks to the escalating US-China trade war that may lead to a global economic slowdown.
After brief support at the zone between 56-58, oil's price has plunged to seek support from the zone between 50-52.
The 20 day EMA has crossed below the 200 day EMA. The imminent 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a bear market.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and oversold. MACD is falling below its signal line in bearish zone. RSI and Slow stochastic are falling inside their respective oversold zones.
A technical bounce in oil's price is a possibility. Bears are likely to use the opportunity to sell again.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price has fallen sharply below its three weekly EMAs into long-term bear territory. Weekly technical indicators are in bearish zones, and showing downward momentum. Expect bears to 'sell on rise'.
Brent Crude Oil chart
The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil has dropped back into bear territory after a brave struggle to remain above the 'support-resistance zone' between 70-72.
Oil's price briefly received support at the zone between 66-68, but then fell headlong towards the next support zone between 58-60.
The 20 day EMA is about to cross below the 200 day EMA. The likely 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a bear market.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and oversold. MACD is falling below its signal line in bearish zone. RSI and Slow stochastic are falling inside their respective oversold zones, and may trigger a technical bounce.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical indicators are in bearish zones, and showing downward momentum - hinting at some more correction.
WTI Crude Oil chart
The daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil consolidated sideways with a slight upward bias during the past two weeks. Oil's price closed above its three EMAs in bull territory, but failed to close above the 'support-resistance zone' (between 62 and 64).
Note that trading volumes during recent down days have exceeded volumes on up days. That is a sign that bears are active and following a 'sell on rise' strategy.
Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is about to cross above its falling signal line in neutral zone. RSI has moved above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is rising above its 50% level.
Oil's price may rise further due to escalating US-Iran tensions and concerns about US-China trade war.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price bounced up after receiving strong support from its converging weekly EMAs, and closed in long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing much upward momentum.
Brent Crude Oil chart
The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil consolidated sideways with a slight upward bias before breaking out to close above the 'support-resistance zone' (between 70 and 72) on Thu. May 16.
Bears started to 'sell on rise'. Oil's price slipped down to close just below 72, but above its three EMAs in bull territory.
Daily technical indicators are looking bullish but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is facing resistance from its sliding signal line in bullish zone. RSI is above its 50% level, but moving down. Slow stochastic has moved up towards its overbought zone, but its upward momentum has weakened.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing much upward momentum - hinting at some more consolidation.
S&P 500 index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 crossed above the Fibonacci resistance zone between 2640 and 2710 (marked by grey rectangle - refer last week's post) on Mon. Feb 4, and continued its climb along the upper Bollinger Band the next day.
Strong resistance from the 200 day SMA halted further progress of the rally. The index dropped back inside the resistance zone - closing flat for the week.
As long as the index remains above its 20 day SMA (middle band - marked by green dotted line), bulls will endeavour to charge past the 200 day SMA.
Daily technical indicators are correcting overbought conditions, but remain in bullsih zones. MACD and RSI are moving down after facing resistances from the edges of their respective overbought zones. Slow stochastic is about to drop from its overbought zone.
Some more correction or consolidation around current level is likely.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its three weekly EMAs for the second week in a row, but formed a 'doji' candlestick that often signals a reversal of direction. Weekly MACD has crossed above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is moving sideways along its 50% level. Slow stochastic is rising towards its overbought zone.
FTSE 100 index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 touched an intra-day low of 7002 on Mon. Feb 4, but soared past the 7100 level to touch an intra-day high of 7181 the next day.
Strong resistance from the falling 200 day EMA prevented further upward progress. Bears stepped in to 'sell on rise'. The index closed below 7100 for the week, but gained 0.7% on a weekly closing basis.
Daily technical indicators are correcting overbought conditions. MACD is above its signal line in bullish zone, but has stopped rising. RSI has turned down after facing resistance from the edge of its overbought zone. Stochastic has dropped down from its overbought zone.
Some consolidation or correction is likely before the index makes another attempt to cross above its 200 day EMA. (At the time of writing this post, the index is trading above 7130.)
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index faced strong resistance from its 50 week EMA and dropped down to close below 7100, but stayed above its 20 week and 200 week EMAs in long-term bull territory. Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is about to cross above its 50% level. Stochastic has entered its overbought zone.
S&P 500 index chart pattern
The following remarks were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "The strong index volatility during the past two months is an indication of a transition from a bull to a bear market...The impending 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a bear market."
What had appeared inevitable has happened - despite a valiant effort by bulls. The 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA (marked by light grey ellipse) has technically confirmed that the index has fallen into a bear market.
The index had dropped below the lower Bollinger Band to an intra-day low of 2583 on Mon. Dec 10 - only to bounce up and close 5 points higher than Friday's close, forming a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close).
That triggered a brief pullback rally. The index touched an intra-day high of 2685 on Wed. Dec 12, but again faced resistance from the falling 20 day SMA (blue dotted line). Bears tightened their stranglehold. The index dropped to the lower Bollinger Band on Fri. Dec 14 before bouncing up to close just below 2600 - losing 1.25% on a weekly closing basis.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and showing downward momentum. MACD has crossed below its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is falling below its 50% level. Slow stochastic has bounced up weakly after receiving support from the edge of its oversold zone. Expect bears to continue their 'sell on rise' strategy.
The US economy appears to be in peak shape. So, why has the index slipped into a bear market? It is quite elementary (as Sherlock Holmes would often say). The stock market rises and falls in a cyclical fashion that often 'leads' the economic cycle by several months.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed below its sliding 20 week and 50 week EMAs, but above its 200 week EMA in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD is falling below its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is falling after facing resistance from its 50% level. Slow stochastic is poised to fall inside its oversold zone.
FTSE 100 index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 had touched a 2 years low of 6674 on Thu. Dec 6. A pullback rally followed. The index touched an intra-day high of 6908 on Thu. Dec 13, but faced strong resistance from its falling 20 day EMA.
Bears sold the rise. The index slipped down below 6850 to close with a weekly gain of 1%. All three EMAs are falling. FTSE is trading below them in a bear market.
The British PM won a trust vote in Parliament but is struggling to build consensus on her BrExit deal. The uncertainty is helping bears to tighten their grip on the chart.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD is facing resistance from its falling signal line in bearish zone. RSI failed to move above its 50% level, and has turned down. Stochastic also failed to move above its 50% level. Some more correction is likely.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index bounced up a bit but closed below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish and oversold. MACD is falling below its signal line. RSI has received support from the edge its oversold zone. Stochastic is trying to emerge from its oversold zone.
S&P 500 index chart pattern
The following comments appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "The next hurdle for bulls is the previous (Nov 7) index top of 2815. Bears can be expected to put up some resistance there - as they had done in Oct '18."
In a curtailed trading week, the index touched an intra-day high of 2800 on Mon. Dec 3. Bear resistance caused a drop to an intra-day low of 2773 before the index closed at 2790 (near its opening level) - forming a 'doji' candlestick pattern that some times mark a change of direction.
The next day, the index fell sharply below its three EMAs into bear territory. After the mid-week holiday (due to President Bush's funeral), bears attacked with renewed vigour. The index touched an intra-day low of 2621, but recovered substantially to close at 2696.
Bulls failed to drive home their advantage. The index touched an intra-day high of 2708 on Fri. Dec 7, but closed at 2633 - losing 127 points (4.6%) on a weekly closing basis.
The strong index volatility during the past two months is an indication of a transition from a bull to a bear market. (The volatility during Feb-Mar '18 was an advance warning of such a transition.) The impending 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a bear market.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and showing downward momentum. MACD is about to cross below its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is falling below its 50% level. Slow stochastic is falling towards its oversold zone.
All three indicators are showing positive divergences by touching higher bottoms - hinting at another pullback towards the 200 day EMA. Bears are likely to 'sell on rise' again.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed below its sliding 20 week and 50 week EMAs, but above its 200 week EMA in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD is falling below its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is falling after facing resistance from its 50% level. Slow stochastic is poised to fall inside its oversold zone.
FTSE 100 index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 touched an intra-day high of 7145 on Mon. Dec 3, but faced strong resistance from its sliding 50 day EMA. That was a trigger for bears to go on the offensive after two months of sideways consolidation (marked by blue 'rectangle').
A 'rectangle' is usually a continuation pattern. Since the index was falling when it entered the 'rectangle', the likely breakout was downwards. But a 'rectangle' tends to be unreliable, so one needs to wait for the eventual breakout before taking any buy/sell decision.
The downward breakout occurred on Thu. Dec 6. The index touched an intra-day 52 week low of 6674 before recovering to close above 6700. A pullback to the lower edge of the 'rectangle' followed on Fri. Dec 7. Bears promptly used the pullback to sell.
The index lost 202 points (2.9%) on a weekly closing basis, and is trading well below its three EMAs in a bear market.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD is falling below its signal line in bearish zone. RSI has bounced up after receiving support from the edge of its oversold zone. Stochastic is trying to emerge from its oversold zone. More correction is likely.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index touched a 2 year low and closed below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical indicators are in bearish zones, and showing downward momentum. MACD is falling below its signal line. RSI is about to fall inside its oversold zone. Stochastic has re-entered its oversold zone.
WTI Crude Oil chart
Despite rumours of a production cut by Saudi Arabia, the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil continued its steep correction from its Oct '18 top - touching a 52 week low of 50.10 on Nov 26, almost a 35% correction.
The 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA (marked by grey oval) has technically confirmed a bear market. Bears have been using a 'sell on rise' strategy to devastating effect.
A production cut is expected when OPEC meets in Vienna next week amid worries over a US-China trade war, a supply glut and demand slowdown.
Daily technical indicators are looking quite oversold. MACD is falling below its signal line deep inside its oversold zone. RSI has remained inside its oversold zone since the beginning of Nov '18. Slow stochastic has remained inside its oversold zone for almost six weeks. All technical bounces are facing selling pressure.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed well below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical indicators are looking oversold. MACD is falling below its signal line in oversold zone. RSI is trying to emerge from its oversold zone. Slow stochastic is well inside its oversold zone, but has stopped falling.
Brent Crude Oil chart
The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil has corrected 33% from its Oct 4 top, and plunged headlong into a bear market.
Oil's price touched a 52 week low of 58.40 on Nov 23, but bounced up to close above 60 on Nov 26. The imminent 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA will technically confirm a bear market.
Daily technical indicators are looking quite oversold. MACD is falling below its signal line deep inside its oversold zone. RSI has remained inside its oversold zone for the past three weeks. Slow stochastic has remained inside its oversold zone for almost six weeks.
Bears have been using all technical bounces to sell, and may do so again. However, the price fall has been quite steep. Some consolidation around current levels - if not a rally - can be expected.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price closed well below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish and oversold. MACD is below its signal line and has dropped to the edge of its oversold zone. RSI is trying to emerge from its oversold zone. Slow stochastic is well inside its oversold zone, but has stopped falling.
Gold chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of Gold faced strong resistance from the 'Support/Resistance zone' between 1230 & 1240, and dropped sharply below its 20 day and 50 day EMAs.
After touching an intra-day low of 1196 on Tue. Nov 13, gold's price has rallied above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs. Note the sliding volumes, hinting that the rally may soon run out of steam.
Incidentally, gold's price is almost a mirror-image of the US Dollar index, which spiked to 97.50 on Nov 12 but dropped to 96 on Nov 19 - triggering the rally in gold's price.
Daily technical indicators are looking neutral to bullish. MACD is trying to cross above its '0' line after falling briefly below it. RSI has just moved above its 50% level after falling below it. Slow stochastic has bounced up smartly from its oversold zone and has moved above its 50% level.
Gold's price is trading below its sliding 200 day EMA in a bear market. Expect it to face resistance from the 'Support/Resistance zone' once again.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price closed just below its 20 week EMA, and well below its 50 week and 200 week EMAs in long-term bear territory. Weekly technical indicators are looking slightly bearish. MACD is rising above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI dropped down after facing resistance from its 50% level, but is trying to move up. Slow stochastic has dropped sharply from its overbought zone.
Silver chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of Silver touched a 52 week low of 13.86 on Wed. Nov 14, but formed a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close) that triggered a sharp rally that is facing resistance from the 20 day EMA.
Volumes have been sliding during the rally. That means the rally may not last much longer. Silver's price is trading below its 50 day EMA and well below its falling 200 day EMA in a bear market.
Daily technical indicators are looking neutral to bearish. MACD is trying to cross above its falling signal line in bearish zone. RSI is at its neutral zone. Slow stochastic has bounced up from its oversold zone and is rising towards its 50% level. Expect bears to 'sell on rise' anytime.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), silver’s price closed well below its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators are in their respective bearish zones. MACD is moving sideways just above its signal line. RSI has bounced up from the edge of its oversold zone. Slow stochastic is below its 50% level and is not showing any upward momentum.
