Monday, June 25, 2018

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Jun 22, 2018): bulls forced to retreat

S&P 500 index chart pattern


The following comments appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "In case of further correction, 'GAP 2' should provide strong support." 

The index consolidated sideways within a 32 points range (between 2743 and 2775) and dropped below its 20 day EMA to seek support from 'GAP 2' on Tue. Jun 19 and Thu. Jun 21.

Note that the index formed a small 'rounding top' reversal pattern, which is more clearly visible on MACD and RSI indicators. While MACD has crossed below its signal line in bullish zone, RSI is seeking support from its 50% level.

Slow stochastic has dived below its 50% level, and may be hinting at a further fall in the index towards its 50 day EMA. As long as 2680 is not breached, the past 3 months' bullish pattern of 'higher tops, higher bottoms' will remain intact.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its three rising weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish, but MACD and RSI are not showing upward momentum. Slow stochastic is overbought, and can trigger a correction.

FTSE 100 index chart pattern

The following comments appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100: "Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and showing downward momentum - hinting at more consolidation/correction." 

The index breached the support level of 7601 thrice during the week. On Tue. Jun 19 and Fri. Jun 22, the breaches were intra-day. On Thu. Jun 21, the index closed below its 20 day and 50 day EMAs at 7556 - its lowest close since May 2.

Though FTSE closed with a 48 points (0.6%) weekly gain on Fri. Jun 22, repeated breaches of a long-term support level is a clear warning that worse may follow. (At the time of writing this post, the index is on the verge of falling below 7601 again.)

Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones. A test of support from the 200 day EMA may be on the cards.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index bounced up after testing support from its 20 week EMA, and closed above its  three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are correcting overbought conditions.

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