FIIs were net sellers of equity on Tue. Jun 26, but net buyers on Mon. & Wed. (Jun 25 & 27). Their total net selling was worth Rs 2.72 Billion. DIIs were net buyers on Tue. & Wed. but net sellers on Mon. Their total net buying was worth Rs 2.36 Billion, as per provisional figures.
The GST investigation wing has detected tax evasion of over Rs 20 Billion in 2 months through raising of fake invoices to claim input tax credit and GST refunds. Of the 11.1 million registered businesses, less than 100,000 are paying 80% of the taxes.
Ahead of next week's first India-US 2+2 dialogue when India's External Affairs Minister and Defence Minister will meet US Secretary of State and Secretary of Defence, President Trump accused India of charging high import duties of 100% on American products. The trade war is well and truly on.
Note the following comments from last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "A convincing move above the down trend line is necessary for bulls to regain control of the chart...A fall below the 50 day EMA can lead to a test of support from the 200 day EMA."
On Jun 13, Nifty had made an intra-day attempt to move above the (purple) down trend line, but failed to close above it. The index had subsequently corrected down, but found support at the 33 points 'gap' (formed on Feb 5).
Nifty made two more attempts in quick succession - on Jun 22 & 25 - but faced strong resistance from the down trend line. The index bounced up on Tue. Jun 26 after finding support from its 20 day EMA and the 'gap'.
Today's sharp correction not only dropped Nifty below the 'gap' but also below the (green) up trend line drawn through the Mar '18 and May '18 lows. Though the index fell below the 50 day EMA intra-day, it managed to close just above it. Technically, the 50 day EMA has not been breached yet.
Daily technical indicators have turned bearish and are showing downward momentum. MACD has crossed below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI has fallen below its 50% level. Slow stochastic formed a 'head and shoulders' reversal pattern and is plummeting towards its oversold zone.
Bears have forced open the door for an index fall below the 50 day EMA, and a test of support from the 200 day EMA. Will Nifty fall that far? May be not right away. Expect support from the zone between 10400 and 10550 (corresponding to the lows made on May 23 and Jun 5).
Nifty's TTM P/E has slipped further to 25.73 - which is still much higher than its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is moving up in neutral zone, and hinting at near-term index down side.
Trump has started trade wars with China, EU, Canada, Mexico, and now India. The consequences will not be pleasant for global economic growth. Possibility of a recession can no longer be ruled out. No wonder equity markets worldwide have started to tumble.
The long-term structure of the Nifty chart is bullish, and will remain so as long as the index trades above its rising 200 day EMA. However, the breach of a 3 months long up trend line should be treated with caution by investors.
The GST investigation wing has detected tax evasion of over Rs 20 Billion in 2 months through raising of fake invoices to claim input tax credit and GST refunds. Of the 11.1 million registered businesses, less than 100,000 are paying 80% of the taxes.
Ahead of next week's first India-US 2+2 dialogue when India's External Affairs Minister and Defence Minister will meet US Secretary of State and Secretary of Defence, President Trump accused India of charging high import duties of 100% on American products. The trade war is well and truly on.
Note the following comments from last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "A convincing move above the down trend line is necessary for bulls to regain control of the chart...A fall below the 50 day EMA can lead to a test of support from the 200 day EMA."
On Jun 13, Nifty had made an intra-day attempt to move above the (purple) down trend line, but failed to close above it. The index had subsequently corrected down, but found support at the 33 points 'gap' (formed on Feb 5).
Nifty made two more attempts in quick succession - on Jun 22 & 25 - but faced strong resistance from the down trend line. The index bounced up on Tue. Jun 26 after finding support from its 20 day EMA and the 'gap'.
Today's sharp correction not only dropped Nifty below the 'gap' but also below the (green) up trend line drawn through the Mar '18 and May '18 lows. Though the index fell below the 50 day EMA intra-day, it managed to close just above it. Technically, the 50 day EMA has not been breached yet.
Daily technical indicators have turned bearish and are showing downward momentum. MACD has crossed below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI has fallen below its 50% level. Slow stochastic formed a 'head and shoulders' reversal pattern and is plummeting towards its oversold zone.
Bears have forced open the door for an index fall below the 50 day EMA, and a test of support from the 200 day EMA. Will Nifty fall that far? May be not right away. Expect support from the zone between 10400 and 10550 (corresponding to the lows made on May 23 and Jun 5).
Nifty's TTM P/E has slipped further to 25.73 - which is still much higher than its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is moving up in neutral zone, and hinting at near-term index down side.
Trump has started trade wars with China, EU, Canada, Mexico, and now India. The consequences will not be pleasant for global economic growth. Possibility of a recession can no longer be ruled out. No wonder equity markets worldwide have started to tumble.
The long-term structure of the Nifty chart is bullish, and will remain so as long as the index trades above its rising 200 day EMA. However, the breach of a 3 months long up trend line should be treated with caution by investors.
1 comment:
The first US-India 2+2 dialogue scheduled next week was cancelled by USA due to 'unavoidable reasons' - probably to indicate Trump's unhappiness because of India's continued import of crude oil from Iran.
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