For the month of Jun '18, FIIs were net sellers of equity worth Rs 102.50 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 141.50 Billion, as per provisional figures.
Sensex gained barely 100 points (0.3%) on a monthly closing basis, while Nifty lost 22 points (0.2%) despite strong buying by DIIs.
At US $529 Billion, India’s foreign currency debt at end-Mar '18 rose 2.4% over its level at end-Mar '17, primarily on account of an increase in commercial borrowings, short-term debt and NRI deposits, according to a release by RBI.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
This was the concluding comment in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "As long as bears are able to defend the down trend line, the possibility of a fall towards (and even below) the 132 points 'gap' can't be ruled out."
On Mon. Jun 25, the index made an intra-day attempt to breach the down trend line. Bears stood firm, and sent bulls packing to seek support from the 20 day EMA. On Wed. Jun 27, the index dropped and closed below its 20 day EMA.
On Thu. Jun 28, the expected happened. Sensex not only dropped below its 50 day EMA for the first time in more than a month, but fell inside the 132 points 'gap' before bouncing up to close above it.
The index closed the week and month above its three EMAs in bull territory on the back of huge buying by DIIs - but lost more than 260 points (0.7%) for the week.
Daily technical indicators are looking neutral to bearish. MACD is below its signal line, and is falling towards its neutral zone. ROC is below its 10 day MA, and rising towards its neutral zone. RSI has moved up to its neutral zone after slipping below it. Slow stochastic has dropped to the edge of its oversold zone.
The rising 200 day EMA shows that the long-term chart structure remains bullish. The down trend line, which has dominated the chart for the past 5 months, shows that bears are not ready to give up their near-term advantage.
Stay cautiously optimistic and be very selective. 2018 is not going to be an easy year to make money in the stock market for investors.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The bearish 'hanging man' candlestick pattern in the previous week's bar chart pattern of Nifty had given advanced warning of a possible corrective move.
The index faced strong resistance from the down trend line for the third straight week, and corrected below the 33 points 'gap' (formed on Feb 5) and its 20 week EMA before bouncing up to close inside the 'gap'.
Unlike a support or resistance level, which gets weakened with each subsequent test, a trend line gets strengthened by subsequent tests. Bears are using that knowledge to their advantage.
Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones, but their upward momentum has slowed down. MACD has started to slide down towards its signal line. Slow stochastic has started falling inside its overbought zone. ROC has dropped from its overbought zone and crossed below its rising 10 week MA. Only RSI is showing a bit of upward momentum inside its overbought zone.
For the past 12 weeks, the 20 week EMA has provided down side support to the index. A likely fall below the 20 week EMA can lead to a test of support from the 50 week EMA.
Nifty's TTM P/E has slipped further to 25.9 - which is still well above its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is in neutral zone, hinting at some consolidation around current levels.
Bottomline? Bears have dug in their heels and have strongly defended down trend lines on Sensex and Nifty charts. Bulls have failed to budge them so far. Some more consolidation or correction can be expected. Stay on the sidelines till clear trends emerge. Long term trends remain up.
Sensex gained barely 100 points (0.3%) on a monthly closing basis, while Nifty lost 22 points (0.2%) despite strong buying by DIIs.
At US $529 Billion, India’s foreign currency debt at end-Mar '18 rose 2.4% over its level at end-Mar '17, primarily on account of an increase in commercial borrowings, short-term debt and NRI deposits, according to a release by RBI.
India’s fiscal deficit has exceeded 55% of the Budget estimate in just first two months (April-May) of the current fiscal. But it is still lower than what was recorded in the same period last fiscal.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
This was the concluding comment in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "As long as bears are able to defend the down trend line, the possibility of a fall towards (and even below) the 132 points 'gap' can't be ruled out."
On Mon. Jun 25, the index made an intra-day attempt to breach the down trend line. Bears stood firm, and sent bulls packing to seek support from the 20 day EMA. On Wed. Jun 27, the index dropped and closed below its 20 day EMA.
On Thu. Jun 28, the expected happened. Sensex not only dropped below its 50 day EMA for the first time in more than a month, but fell inside the 132 points 'gap' before bouncing up to close above it.
The index closed the week and month above its three EMAs in bull territory on the back of huge buying by DIIs - but lost more than 260 points (0.7%) for the week.
Daily technical indicators are looking neutral to bearish. MACD is below its signal line, and is falling towards its neutral zone. ROC is below its 10 day MA, and rising towards its neutral zone. RSI has moved up to its neutral zone after slipping below it. Slow stochastic has dropped to the edge of its oversold zone.
The rising 200 day EMA shows that the long-term chart structure remains bullish. The down trend line, which has dominated the chart for the past 5 months, shows that bears are not ready to give up their near-term advantage.
Stay cautiously optimistic and be very selective. 2018 is not going to be an easy year to make money in the stock market for investors.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The bearish 'hanging man' candlestick pattern in the previous week's bar chart pattern of Nifty had given advanced warning of a possible corrective move.
The index faced strong resistance from the down trend line for the third straight week, and corrected below the 33 points 'gap' (formed on Feb 5) and its 20 week EMA before bouncing up to close inside the 'gap'.
Unlike a support or resistance level, which gets weakened with each subsequent test, a trend line gets strengthened by subsequent tests. Bears are using that knowledge to their advantage.
Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones, but their upward momentum has slowed down. MACD has started to slide down towards its signal line. Slow stochastic has started falling inside its overbought zone. ROC has dropped from its overbought zone and crossed below its rising 10 week MA. Only RSI is showing a bit of upward momentum inside its overbought zone.
For the past 12 weeks, the 20 week EMA has provided down side support to the index. A likely fall below the 20 week EMA can lead to a test of support from the 50 week EMA.
Nifty's TTM P/E has slipped further to 25.9 - which is still well above its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is in neutral zone, hinting at some consolidation around current levels.
Bottomline? Bears have dug in their heels and have strongly defended down trend lines on Sensex and Nifty charts. Bulls have failed to budge them so far. Some more consolidation or correction can be expected. Stay on the sidelines till clear trends emerge. Long term trends remain up.
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