Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Jul 25, 2018)

FIIs were net buyers of equity during the first two trading days this week, but net sellers today. Their total net selling was worth Rs 8.3 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 7.4 Billion, as per provisional figures.

Nifty had 'lost' 1220 points from its lifetime high of 11172 (touched on Jan 29 '18) to its low of 9952 (touched on Mar 23 '18). By touching a high of 11157 today, 1205 of the 'lost' 1220 points have been regained - but the index has taken more than twice the amount of time to do so.

German agro-chemical major Bayer, International Finance Corporation, Netafim and Swiss Re Corporate Solutions launched the 'Better Life Farming' alliance to provide innovative solutions for smallholder farmers in developing economies to help them raise their incomesThe global alliance has now roped in local partners - Yara Fertilisers, DeHaat and Big Basket in India - to scale up its operations. 



The following remark was made in last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "... expect the index to cross above the 'resistance zone' to a new lifetime high sooner than later."

The index crossed above the 'resistance zone' on Tue. Jul 24, and pulled back to the top of the 'resistance zone' today. It should make an attempt to touch a new high any time.

All three EMAs are rising, and the index is trading well above them - and the (purple) up trend line - in a bull market. 

Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, and looking overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line. RSI is facing resistance from the edge of its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is showing negative divergence by failing to rise higher with the index, and may be forming a 'double top' reversal pattern inside its overbought zone. 

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 27.66 - which is much higher than its long-term average and in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has bounced up from the edge of its overbought zone. Expect some index consolidation or correction.

A handful of large-cap stocks have propelled the index higher while mid-caps and small-caps have been battered out of shape. Many small investors who are facing deep cuts in their portfolio value should avoid the tendency to 'average down' - it may increase losses.

Benjamin Graham had suggested that an equity portfolio should have 75% or more in large-cap stalwart stocks and not more than 25% in mid-cap/small-cap stocks. At times like these, one appreciates the wisdom behind such an asset allocation plan. 

1 comment:

Subhankar said...

No lessons learnt, retail investors trapped again

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/no-lessons-learnt-retail-investors-trapped-again/articleshow/65237211.cms