Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Sep 18, 2019)

FIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 25.2 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 11.7 Billion, as per provisional figures.

India's WPI-based inflation was 1.08% in Aug '19 - the same as in Jul '19 but much lower than 4.62% in Aug '18. Rise in inflation of food items was balanced by deflation in fuel and power.

The Finance Ministry is considering a fourth 'booster' dose to revive a sliding economy, after the first three 'booster' doses failed to generate any significant revival in 'animal spirits'. 


For the past seven weeks, the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has been consolidating sideways with a slight downward bias, touching progressively lower tops. The 'death cross' (marked by grey oval) of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA at the beginning of the month had technically confirmed a bear market. 

Bulls are fighting hard, but the resistance zone between 11100 and 11200 has proved to be a tough hurdle. The Aug 23 low of 10637 is in danger of being tested, and breached.

The index had bounced up after testing support from the lower Bollinger Band at the beginning of the month. But the counter-trend rally lost steam after crossing above the middle band (20 day SMA - marked by green dotted line).

Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones. MACD is seeking support from its rising signal line. RSI is below its 50% level. Slow stochastic formed a 'double top' reversal pattern at the edge of its overbought zone, and has dropped sharply below its 50% level. 

Nifty's TTM P/E has slipped down to 26.66, but remains inside its overbought zone and much higher than its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is oscillating near the edge of its oversold zone, hinting at some near-term index consolidation.

Three 'booster packages' from the Finance Minister have come and gone without making a dent on the bearish sentiment of FIIs. Bulls are hoping for a miracle from our popular leader. But he seems more interested in fiddling around with photo-ops while the economy is sinking.

Q2 (Sep '19) corporate earnings may be worse than Q1 (Jun '19) numbers. The upcoming festive season sales may prevent a total washout. Small investors should be extremely wary about bottom fishing.

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