Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Nifty chart: a long-term outlook

After Monday's holiday, FIIs were net sellers of equity on both trading days this week. Their total net selling was worth Rs 37.5 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on both trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 25.6 Billion, as per provisional figures.

The IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI slipped to a 15 month low of 51.4 in Aug '19 from 52.5 in Jul '19, but remained above 50 indicating growth. The Services PMI also declined to 52.4 in Aug '19 from 53.8 in Jul '19. The Composite (Manufacturing + Services) PMI moved down to 52.6 in Aug '19 from 53.9 in Jul '19.

GST collection in Aug '19 slipped to Rs 98.2 Billion from Rs 1.02 Trillion in Jul '19, but was 4.5% higher than Rs 93.9 Billion collected in Aug '18.

The weekly line chart of Nifty has breached two up trend lines drawn from the Feb '16 low (also called Fan Lines - marked FL1 and FL2). This is a sign that the long-term up trend is getting weak, but is not yet over.

As per Corrective Fan Principle, downward breach of a third up trend line - that has not yet been drawn on the chart - will technically confirm the reversal of the long-term up trend.

The index is struggling to hold on to the support level of 10800, and may move lower. A test of support from the 200 week EMA appears increasingly likely.

Weekly technical indicators are in bearish zones. MACD is showing downward momentum. RSI and Slow stochastic are moving sideways - hinting at near-term index consolidation.

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved down to 26.61, but remains inside its overbought zone and much higher than its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is falling inside its oversold zone. Some near-term index up side is possible.

The market is hoping that a third round of economic booster 'package' - promised by the Finance Minister - will help stop the slide in the index. But the two earlier 'packages' have failed to revive bullish sentiment.

FIIs have intensified their selling after a weak Q1 GDP number and sliding auto sales. They may not turn buyers in a hurry.

1 comment:

Bullish India said...

Keep posting these sorts of blogs, all are very informative and needed in this current stock market situation. Thank you!