Monday, October 8, 2018

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Oct 05, 2018): bears throw a few wicked punches

S&P 500 index chart pattern


The following comments were made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "Despite trading near a lifetime high, the index is facing difficulty in shaking the bears off...A correction towards the lower Bollinger Band remains a possibility."

The index touched the upper Bollinger Band twice - on Mon. (Oct 1) and Wed. (Oct 3) - but corrected sharply below its 20 day SMA (dotted line) to the lower Bollinger Band by Fri. (Oct 5). The index bounced up a bit after receiving good support from its 50 day EMA, but lost about 1% on a weekly closing basis.

The previous occasion when the index dropped to touch the lower Bollinger Band was more than 3 months ago (in end-Jun '18). The index had then consolidated sideways before resuming its up trend. Will the pattern repeat this time? The fact that the index took just a week to wipe out all gains made during the previous three weeks is hinting at a bear resurgence. 

Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and showing downward momentum. MACD is falling below its signal line in bullish zone. RSI and Slow stochastic have dropped below their respective 50% levels after forming 'head and shoulders' reversal patterns. Some more correction can't be ruled out.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its three rising weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are suggesting a correction towards its rising 20 week EMA. MACD and Slow stochastic are correcting overbought conditions. RSI is falling in bullish zone.  

FTSE 100 index chart pattern


The following comments were made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100: "The three EMAs are converging - a technical condition that is usually a harbinger of a sharp up or down move."

The sharp move occurred downwards - below all three EMAs into bear territory once again. The index managed to close above 7300, but lost more than 190 points (2.5%) on a weekly closing basis.

Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and showing downward momentum. MACD has crossed below its signal line in bearish zone. RSI has dropped below its 50% level. Stochastic has entered its oversold zone, and can trigger a pullback. (At the time of writing this post, the index has slipped below the 7300 level.) 

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed below its 20 week and 50 week EMAs but above its 200 week EMA in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish and showing downward momentum. MACD is falling below its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is falling below its 50% level. Stochastic has entered its oversold zone.

1 comment:

Subhankar said...

'Exuberant' Market Faces Second 10% Reversal Since January

https://www.investopedia.com/news/exuberant-market-faces-second-10-reversal-january/