Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Gold and Silver charts: technical pullback rallies flatter to deceive

Gold chart pattern


Oversold technical indicators triggered a pullback rally on the daily bar chart pattern of Gold. After crossing above its 20 day EMA and 'Support/Resistance zone 3 (1200-1210)', gold's price touched a high of 1217 on Aug 28 but formed a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close).

That seems to have brought the pullback rally to an end. Gold's price dropped below its 20 day EMA and closed inside 'Support/Resistance zone 3'. (After a dip below 94.50 on Aug 28, the US Dollar index has moved up above 95 - cooling bullish fervour.) 

Daily technical indicators are turning bearish. MACD is above its signal line in bearish zone, but its upward momentum has stalled. RSI has moved down after facing resistance from its 50% level. Slow stochastic has turned down after facing resistance from the edge of its overbought zone.

Gold's price is trading below its three EMAs in a bear market that was technically confirmed by the 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA (marked by light grey circle) back in Jun '18. Expect bears to continue to 'sell on rise'.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price closed well below its three weekly EMAs in long-term bear territoryThe 50 week EMA is about to cross below the 200 week EMA. Weekly technical indicators have corrected oversold conditions but remain in bearish zones. 

Silver chart pattern


Bears were expected to sell on every rise on the daily bar chart pattern of Silver - and so they did. A brief pullback rally fizzled out when silver's price faced strong resistance from its falling 20 day EMA and formed a 'reversal day' bar on Aug 28.

Silver's price has resumed its downward journey and may fall below 14.20 in the near term.

Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones and showing downward momentum after correcting oversold conditions. Silver's price is trading well below its three falling EMAs in a bear market. Expect bears to remain in control.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), silver’s price closed well below its three falling weekly EMAs in a long-term bear marketWeekly technical indicators are looking oversold.

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