In a holiday-shortened trading week, FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon., Tue., and Wed. (Sep 10-12), but net buyers on Fri. Sep 14. Their total net selling was worth Rs 22.9 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. but net buyers on Tue., Wed. and Fri. Their total net buying was worth Rs 11.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.
India's CPI inflation dropped to a 10 months low of 3.69% in Aug '18 against 4.17% in Jul '18 - thanks to lower food prices. WPI inflation eased to 4.53% in Aug '18 from 5.09% in Jul '18.
The IIP number was a healthy 6.6% in Jul '18 - lower than the downwardly revised 6.8% in Jun '18 - on the back of good performance by the manufacturing sector and higher offtake of capital goods and consumer durables.
India's exports grew by 19.2% to US $27.8 Billion in Aug '18. Imports grew 25.4% to US $45.2 Billion, leaving a trade deficit of US $17.4 Billion. In Jul '18, trade deficit had soared to a five years high of US $18 Billion.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex had formed a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) after touching a lifetime high of 38990 on Aug 29. That triggered a correction within a downward-sloping channel.
The index bounced up after receiving twin support from its 50 day EMA and the lower edge of the channel to close above its three EMAs in a bull market, but lost about 300 points (0.8%) on a weekly closing basis.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish, but showing signs of recovery. MACD is below its falling signal line in bullish zone. ROC and Slow stochastic have corrected oversold conditions, but remain in bearish zones. RSI is trying to cross above its 50% level after falling below it. ROC, RSI and Slow stochastic are showing negative divergences by falling below their Jun '18 lows.
Sensex is likely to attempt a breakout above the downward-sloping channel. Keep a watch on trading volumes. Any upward breakout should be accompanied by a significant increase in volumes. Otherwise, a pullback may follow.
A depreciating Rupee and rising oil prices are not conducive to a bull rally. The Finance Minister tried to 'talk up' the market by proposing measures to defend the Rupee. The 'measures' appear to be nothing more than a wait-and-watch policy. So, stay invested but remain watchful and cautious.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
After touching a high of 11760 in the week ending on Aug 31 '18, the weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty has been correcting within a downward-sloping channel.
The index received good support from the lower edge of the channel and closed above its two rising weekly EMAs - forming a 'hammer' candlestick with bullish implications - but lost 74 points (0.6%) on a weekly closing basis.
Weekly technical indicators are inside their respective overbought zones, but showing downward momentum. MACD is sliding down above its signal line. ROC is about to cross below its 10 week MA. RSI and Slow stochastic are moving down.
Nifty's TTM P/E has slipped a bit to 28.0, but remains well above its long-term average in overbought territory. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is correcting inside oversold zone. Some index upside is possible.
Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are undergoing bull market corrections. Rising oil prices, a depreciating Rupee, widening trade and fiscal deficits comprise a wall of worries that bulls need to overcome. Be very choosy about where you invest, and keep a long-term outlook.
India's CPI inflation dropped to a 10 months low of 3.69% in Aug '18 against 4.17% in Jul '18 - thanks to lower food prices. WPI inflation eased to 4.53% in Aug '18 from 5.09% in Jul '18.
The IIP number was a healthy 6.6% in Jul '18 - lower than the downwardly revised 6.8% in Jun '18 - on the back of good performance by the manufacturing sector and higher offtake of capital goods and consumer durables.
India's exports grew by 19.2% to US $27.8 Billion in Aug '18. Imports grew 25.4% to US $45.2 Billion, leaving a trade deficit of US $17.4 Billion. In Jul '18, trade deficit had soared to a five years high of US $18 Billion.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex had formed a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) after touching a lifetime high of 38990 on Aug 29. That triggered a correction within a downward-sloping channel.
The index bounced up after receiving twin support from its 50 day EMA and the lower edge of the channel to close above its three EMAs in a bull market, but lost about 300 points (0.8%) on a weekly closing basis.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish, but showing signs of recovery. MACD is below its falling signal line in bullish zone. ROC and Slow stochastic have corrected oversold conditions, but remain in bearish zones. RSI is trying to cross above its 50% level after falling below it. ROC, RSI and Slow stochastic are showing negative divergences by falling below their Jun '18 lows.
Sensex is likely to attempt a breakout above the downward-sloping channel. Keep a watch on trading volumes. Any upward breakout should be accompanied by a significant increase in volumes. Otherwise, a pullback may follow.
A depreciating Rupee and rising oil prices are not conducive to a bull rally. The Finance Minister tried to 'talk up' the market by proposing measures to defend the Rupee. The 'measures' appear to be nothing more than a wait-and-watch policy. So, stay invested but remain watchful and cautious.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
After touching a high of 11760 in the week ending on Aug 31 '18, the weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty has been correcting within a downward-sloping channel.
The index received good support from the lower edge of the channel and closed above its two rising weekly EMAs - forming a 'hammer' candlestick with bullish implications - but lost 74 points (0.6%) on a weekly closing basis.
Weekly technical indicators are inside their respective overbought zones, but showing downward momentum. MACD is sliding down above its signal line. ROC is about to cross below its 10 week MA. RSI and Slow stochastic are moving down.
Nifty's TTM P/E has slipped a bit to 28.0, but remains well above its long-term average in overbought territory. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is correcting inside oversold zone. Some index upside is possible.
Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are undergoing bull market corrections. Rising oil prices, a depreciating Rupee, widening trade and fiscal deficits comprise a wall of worries that bulls need to overcome. Be very choosy about where you invest, and keep a long-term outlook.
No comments:
Post a Comment