Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Aug 22, 2018)

FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. Aug 20 but net buyers on Tue. Their total net selling was worth Rs 2.3 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. and Tue. Their total net buying was worth Rs 7.9 Billion, as per provisional figures.

The US government has announced a preliminary 50% anti-dumping duty on large diameter welded metal pipes imported from India. Last year's imports totalled US $295 Million. A higher duty of 133% has been imposed on China.

In a stern warning, the Finance Ministry has asked CEOs of PSU banks to check all non-performing accounts exceeding Rs 500 Million for fraud, or they could face criminal conspiracy charges.


In a holiday-shortened trading week, the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty rose to touch a new lifetime high on Tue. Aug 21, but formed a small 'hanging man' candlestick pattern that has bearish implications.

The index is trading well above its three rising EMAs in a bull market. However, the widening distance between the 20 day and 200 day EMAs is a sign of overbought conditions that can trigger a correction or consolidation at any time.

Daily technical indicators are looking overbought. MACD has crossed above its signal line in bullish zone. RSI and Slow stochastic have re-entered their respective overbought zones. All three are showing negative divergences by failing to rise higher with the index.

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 28.29 - at its highest level this month and much higher than its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is trying to move up in neutral zone, and can limit index upside.

Bullish sentiments have received a boost after better corporate Q1 (Jun '18) results. The market has already started discounting better Q2 (Sep '18) results - but whether the actual results will be better or not remains to be seen, as a higher base-effect will kick in.

Mid-cap stocks have started participating in the bull rally, which is a bullish sign. Macro headwinds - viz. high oil price, depreciated Rupee, widening trade deficit, rising interest rates - should induce caution rather than euphoria among small investors.

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