Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Aug 01, 2018)

FIIs were net buyers of equity on Tue. Jul 31, but net sellers on Mon. Jul 30 and today. Their total net buying was worth Rs 2.4 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on Mon. and net sellers during the next two days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 8 Billion, as per provisional figures.

At the end of the three-day Monetary Policy Committee meeting, RBI hiked repo rate and reverse repo rate by 25 bps (0.25%) each today. The move was widely expected. Nifty closed just 10 points lower today after four straight days of rallying higher.

Revenue collection from GST rose to Rs 965 Billion in Jul '18 from Rs 956 Billion in Jun '18, thanks to increased compliance. However, it fell short of the Rs 1 Trillion per month target set by the government.


The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty touched a new high every day for five straight trading days. However, it closed lower today to form a small 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close).

All three EMAs are rising, and Nifty is trading above them, and above the (blue) up trend line, in a bull market. The index is in 'blue sky' territory with no known resistances.

Daily technical indicators are inside their respective overbought zones. MACD is rising above its signal line. ROC is above its 10 day MA, but has stopped rising. RSI and Slow stochastic are showing signs of correcting overbought conditions.

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 28.14 - which is much higher than its long-term average and in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is oscillating just above its overbought zone. Expect some index consolidation or correction.

The index rally during the past 4 months has not been broad-based. A few large-cap stocks have propelled the index higher. Mid-cap and small-cap stocks have undergone profit booking, but their valuations still remain high.

If the index undergoes a correction - which is quite possible after a sharp rally - the mid-cap and small-cap stocks may correct even more. Any rally in mid-cap or small-cap stocks from here on can be used for partial profit booking.

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