Tuesday, November 21, 2017

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: consolidating within symmetrical triangle patterns

WTI Crude Oil chart


The following remarks appeared in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "Daily technical indicators are looking quite overbought. Slow stochastic is showing negative divergence by failing to touch a new high with oil's price. A pullback towards 55 is a possibility."

Oil's price rose to touch a new intra-day high of 57.92 on Nov 8, but formed a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) that triggered a correction to an intra-day low of 54.81 on Nov 14.

Good support from the 20 day EMA prevented a deeper correction. Oil's price rose to touch a lower top of 56.77 on Nov 20 and formed another 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close).

Another test of support from the 20 day EMA is a possibility. If the support breaks, oil's price can drop to the zone between 52 & 53.

The entire trading during Nov '17 has formed a 'symmetrical triangle' pattern from which a breakout can occur upwards or downwards. Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones after correcting overbought conditions, but are not showing much upward momentum.

Increase in US crude oil production due to recent higher oil prices has become a matter of concern for OPEC and non-OPEC producers, who will be meeting on Nov 30 to discuss their production restriction deal that is going to expire in Mar '18.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price slipped down after facing resistance from its sliding 200 week EMA, but closed well above its 20 week and 50 week EMAs. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones, but showing signs of correcting down.

Brent Crude Oil chart


The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil touched an intra-day high of 64.65 on Nov 7, but formed a 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) that triggered a correction to the zone between 61 & 62. (The possibility was mentioned in the previous post.)

After receiving good support from its 20 day EMA, oil's price bounced up to touch a lower top of 62.92 on Fri. Nov 17 - only to slip down and close just above 62 on Nov 20.

The entire trading during Nov '17 has formed a 'symmetrical triangle' pattern from which a breakout can occur upwards or downwards. The fact that oil's price failed to test resistance from the upper edge of the 'triangle' has increased the chances of a downward breakout.

Daily technical indicators have corrected overbought conditions, and are showing slight downward momentum. A downward breakout from the 'triangle' can drop oil's price to the zone between 58 & 59.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price slipped down below its 200 week EMA but managed to close above itWeekly technical indicators are correcting overbought conditions. Slow stochastic has formed a 'double top' reversal pattern inside overbought zone, and can trigger a correction.

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