Monday, November 6, 2017

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Nov 03 '17): bulls on top but bears refusing to give up

S&P 500 index chart pattern


The daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 rose to touch a new high of 2588 on Fri. Nov 3. All three EMAs are rising, and the index is trading above them in a bull market.

Bulls used a brief intra-day drop to the 20 day EMA on Oct 25 '17 to buy. They have successfully used the 'buy the dips' strategy for the past couple of months.

The trading pattern from Oct 23 onwards has formed a bearish 'rising wedge' pattern - from which a downward breakout is likely.

Daily technical indicators are looking overbought, and showing negative divergences by touching lower tops while the index touched a new high.

The combination of a bearish pattern at an index top and negative divergences on technical indicators should be treated with caution. A quick 2-3% correction - like the one that occurred in Aug '17 - is a possibility.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed well above its three rising weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are looking overbought, and can trigger a correction. 

FTSE 100 index chart pattern


The daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 dropped sharply below its 20 day EMA and the (purple) down trend line on Oct 25 '17, but bounced up after finding good support from its 50 day EMA.

The index touched an intra-day high of 7581 on Fri. Nov 3, and is trading above its three EMAs in a bull market. However, it continues to struggle to close convincingly above its Aug 8 top of 7552.

Daily technical indicators are looking bullish, but showing negative divergences by touching lower tops while the index touched a higher top. Some correction or consolidation can follow. 

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly RSI and Slow stochastic are moving sideways. Weekly MACD is rising above its signal line in bullish zone. The entire trading from Apr '17 onwards may be forming a bullish 'ascending triangle' pattern.

No comments: