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Tuesday, January 29, 2013

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: an update

WTI Crude chart

WTI Crude_Jan2913

The bullish signs visible two weeks back on the 1 year daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude oil are beginning to fade a bit. The rally from the higher bottom formed in Nov ‘12 appears to be stalling, as oil’s price is consolidating sideways for the past few days.

Note that the tallest volume bar occurred on a down-day last week, and volumes have been sliding since then. The 50 day EMA is all set to cross above the 200 day EMA, which will technically confirm a return to a bull market.

However, all three daily technical indicators are starting to correct from overbought conditions, and may be the harbinger of a correction.

Brent Crude chart

Brent Crude_Jan2913

The 1 year daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude oil has formed a bullish pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms since touching an intra-day low of 105 in Nov ‘12. All three EMAs are moving up and oil’s price is trading above them in an attempt to stay in bull territory.

Volumes have not been great, and may not be able to sustain the rally. Daily technical indicators are bullish, but showing signs of slowing upward momentum.

The previous up move from the Jun ‘12 bottom had faced resistance from the 117.50 level in Sep ‘12. Note that 117.50 was the bottom touched in Apr ‘12 (an example of how previous bottoms act as a resistance level to future up moves). Unless oil’s price can cross above 117.50, bears will continue to lurk around the corner.

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