Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Feb 20, 2019)

FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (Feb 18 and 19), but net buyers today. Their total net selling was worth Rs 13.4 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on all three trading days this week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 36.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India contracted by 7% to US $33.49 Billion during the Apr-Dec '18 period, compared to US $35.94 Billion during Apr-Dec '17. The decline may put pressure on balance of payments and value of Rupee.

The government has approved a Rs 482 Billion recapitalisation for 12 Public Sector Banks to strengthen their balance sheets and help them to better negotiate RBI's Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) framework.

The following remark was made in last week's technical update on the daily bar chart pattern of Nifty: "Looks like Nifty may be headed below its 200 day EMA towards the lower Bollinger Band."

Six straight days of lower closes - due mainly to FII selling - had dropped the index below its 200 day EMA to the lower Bollinger Band by Fri. Feb 15. 

The index continued to fall further, and slipped below the 10600 level intra-day on Tue. Feb 19 - correcting more than 530 points (4.8%) from its Feb 7 top of 11118.

News of PSB recapitalisation triggered short covering by FIIs today. Nifty pulled back to its 200 day EMA, erasing the losses made on Mon. and Tue.

Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones. MACD is below its falling signal line. RSI is below its 50% level, but showing upward momentum. Slow stochastic is inside its oversold zone. 

The pullback rally is likely to go past the 200 day EMA. Note that the 20 day SMA (middle band - marked by green dotted line) is merging with the 50 day EMA, and the two together can provide overhead resistance.

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved down to 26.5, but remains much higher than its long-term average in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is in neutral zone after a sharp fall from its oversold zone, and can limit near-term upside.

The worst may not be over for Nifty. The probability of a fall to 10000 or even lower remains high - despite heavy buying by DIIs. Decreasing inflows into equity mutual funds and uncertainty about outcome of general election are taking a toll on bullish sentiments.

Small investors need not sell in a panic. Neither should they attempt bottom fishing. Sitting on your hands may not be particularly exciting, but can be a good strategy in a volatile and directionless stock market.

"There's Never Just One Cockroach in the Kitchen" - Warren Buffett

Buffett had made that comment in an interview following an accounting scandal in Wells Fargo. He may as well have made that comment about corruption in ICICI Bank and misreporting of NPAs by Axis Bank.

Yes Bank was the third 'cockroach'. (PSU banks are not being discussed here because collectively they are a massive 'anaconda' that is threatening to swallow India's financial system as a whole!)

The latest 'vermin' is IL&FS, whose MD has quit on his own. (The MD of ICICI Bank remains in suspended animation - for reasons best known to her. RBI has shown the door to the MDs of Axis Bank and Yes Bank, but is powerless to do likewise with the MDs of PSU banks.)

Moody's recently said that rising liquidity worries at IL&FS are credit negative for banks and debt market. The stock market reacted by indiscriminately pummeling the stocks of banks, NBFCs and housing finance companies.

It is interesting to note that despite a hurriedly-called concall with denials about any near-term liquidity problems, DHFL's stock failed to recover much from its lows on Friday (Sep 21). Which is the next 'cockroach'? 

There will be more than one. The business model of banks, NBFCs and HFCs requires borrowing short-term to lend long-term. If short-term liquidity dries up (or, gets costlier due to rising interest rates) the proverbial you-know-what will hit the fan - as it seems to be doing now. 

One market expert tried to reassure investors by stating that Friday's huge selloff was due to 'technical reasons'. One presumes he meant that fundamentally everything is hunky-dory in the financial system. Really?!

Talking about 'technical reasons', the market made a 'panic bottom' - with a sharp surge in transaction volumes - before bouncing up on short covering and some value buying. 

Typically, such a 'panic bottom' occurs during the second leg of a bear phase. 
However, the fact that it has occurred at an early stage of a corrective move is a clear warning to perma-bulls. 

Remember the stock market adage: Panic bottoms seldom hold. That means the market is headed lower than Friday's low. By how much? Likely support levels will be discussed in tomorrow's post on Sensex and Nifty.

Related Post
How to tackle a ‘panic bottom’

5 Stocks contributed Half of Nifty's 1000 point Rally from its Mar '18 low

"Nifty 50 has gained more than 1,000 points from its previous low in March, with the benchmark index taking 76 sessions to chart the journey.

The 50-stock gauge beat small- and mid-cap indices on returns but lagged the Nifty Bank Index during the period. It’s now trading close to its all-time high that the index scaled in January before it started retreating.

The market rallied on the back of short-covering and buying in selective stocks while mid caps underperformed during the period..."

Read more at:

https://www.bloombergquint.com/charts/2018/07/12/what-contributed-to-niftys-1000-point-jump-from-march-low

Sensex, Nifty charts (Jun 22, 2018): bears fight hard to keep bulls at bay

FIIs were net sellers of equity worth Rs 47.4 Billion during the week, though they were net buyers on Thu. Jun 21. DIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 47.2 Billion, as per provisional figures. Sensex and Nifty gained marginally on a weekly closing basis.

Out of 21 PSU banks, only 2 - Indian Bank and Vijaya Bank - were able to pay dividends worth Rs 4.44 Billion to the government. This was the worst dividend payout by PSU banks in the past 10 years.

The government is considering a proposal to sell a significant proportion of its stake in IDBI Bank to LIC, and has approached IRDAI for clearance (as LIC already holds more than 10% stake in IDBI and can't hold more than 15% in a single company).

BSE Sensex index chart pattern

The following comments were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "The 20 day EMA is merging with the lower edge of the 'rising wedge'. That ought to help bulls put up a fight to prevent a likely fall below the 'wedge'."

The index did fall below the 'rising wedge' on Tue. Jun 19 but received support from its 20 day EMA. For the rest of the week, the index continued to receive support from the 20 day EMA but faced resistance from the lower edge of the 'wedge'.

The down trend line is also providing resistance to the index - as it has done for almost 5 months. Sensex closed above its three rising EMAs in bull territory, but needs to move convincingly above the down trend line to attain new highs.

Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is entangled with its signal line and moving sideways. ROC bounced up from its '0' line but remains below its 10 day MA. RSI and Slow stochastic are rising towards their respective overbought zones.

Despite OPEC's decision to increase output on Fri. Jun 22, oil prices shot up as the announced increase was less than expectations. Progress of the monsoon across India has been slow. These are worrying signs that inflation may continue to rise.

Bull markets are supposed to take all worries in stride. However, caution is advised. As long as bears are able to defend the down trend line, the possibility of a fall towards (and even below) the 132 points 'gap' can't be ruled out. 

NSE Nifty index chart pattern

The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty dropped to seek support from the 33 points downward 'gap', but bounced up to close with a weekly gain for the 5th week in a row.

The down trend line again provided strong resistance. Nifty's weekly bar formed a bearish 'hanging man' candlestick pattern. Volume bars are showing negative divergence by touching lower tops.

Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones. MACD has started to rise above its signal line. RSI is facing resistance from the edge of its overbought zone. Slow stochastic has entered its overbought zone. 

However, ROC is about to cross below its rising 10 week MA, and has slipped down from its overbought zone. Some correction or consolidation is likely.

Nifty's TTM P/E has slipped down to 26.63 - still well above its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is oscillating in neutral zone, hinting at some consolidation around current levels.

Bottomline? Bears strongly defended down trend lines on Sensex and Nifty charts. Bulls are pushing them to the limit of their resistance. Some more consolidation or correction can be expected in F&O expiry week. Stay on the sidelines till clear trends emerge. Long term trends remain up. 

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Oct 25 ‘17)

The Finance Minister's announcement yesterday about a recapitalisation scheme for PSU banks energised FIIs no end. Their net buying in equities touched a huge Rs 35.8 Billion today - completely overwhelming DII net selling in equities worth Rs 1.6 Billion.

Nifty formed a small upward 'gap' and touched a new intra-day high of 10341 before closing just below 10300. (Sensex - not shown - closed above 33000 for the first time ever.)

The government has collected over Rs 920 Billion as GST in Sep '17. The number of registered GST assesees have crossed 10 million but so far, less than half have paid taxes.

The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty touched lifetime intra-day and closing highs today as FIIs went on a buying spree - particularly in PSU banks.

Small investors would do well to avoid jumping on to the bull bandwagon now. Market breadth was negative today as declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks.

Daily technical indicators are looking overbought. ROC (not shown), RSI and Slow stochastic are showing negative divergences by touching lower tops as the index rose higher. 

The index formed a bearish 'hanging man'-like candlestick pattern today. The sharp volume surge today (not shown) may be a sign of 'buying climax'.

The index is trading well above its three rising EMAs in a bull market. A bull market is supposed to climb a wall of worries. Just because an index has touched a new high doesn't mean it can't go even higher. However, buying at a market top can be a ticket to disaster.

Nifty's TTM P/E has risen to 26.63 - much higher than its long-term average. Q2 (Sep '17) results of India Inc. declared so far are not showing much improvement over Q1 (Jun '17). That means index valuation will remain high till Q3 (Dec '17).

The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has dropped like a stone inside its overbought zone, and may limit further index upside.

FII buying may have been triggered by short-covering in PSU banks. It remains to be seen if buying momentum is sustained on F&O expiry day tomorrow (Oct 26).

Booking partial profits, and getting rid of non-performers may be a very good idea.

Is the stock market rallying only on hopes of a repo rate cut? - a guest post

Sensex and Nifty had touched lifetime highs in Mar '15. A year-long correction led to both indices touching 52 week lows on Feb 29 '16 - losing 25% from their Mar '15 tops.

The stock market did a sudden volte face from the beginning of Mar '16 - as bears (i.e. FIIs) turned bulls and bulls (i.e. DIIs) became bears. What triggered the abrupt change in sentiment?

Was it belated awareness of market players that the global economy was not doing as badly as they thought? Did FIIs get encouraged by the governments decision of sticking to its fiscal deficit targets? Or, was it a mix of both? 

In this months guest post, Nishit argues that expectation of a repo rate cut by RBI in its policy meeting on Apr 5 '16 may be the real reason for the current market rally.

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The Government recently slashed interest rates on Small Savings, thereby dealing a very big blow to Senior Citizens who depend on interest income. Postal Saving Schemes have suffered big cuts. The whole idea was to bring interest rates in line with Bank Fixed Deposit rates and thus make it a level playing field for banks.

The Government should have excluded special schemes - like the Senior Citizen Savings Scheme and the Girl Child scheme - which were specifically targetted at financially vulnerable sections of the population.

The Government has also committed to stick to its fiscal stability road map. With inflation under control, this has set the stage for a 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut in the RBI policy meeting on April 5th. Optimists are expecting a 50 basis points (0.5%) rate cut.

Reduced Fixed Deposit interest rates are going to put a lot of people in difficulties - especially those who have retired and depend on Fixed Income.

Repo and Reverse Repo rates are most likely to be reduced by 25 basis points now and 25 basis points in June, depending on the progress of the Monsoon. The markets have rallied based on this. The 10 year Government Bond is trading at an yield of 7.51%, which is the lowest in past several years.

The Government will have to kick start several infrastructure projects if demand has to be generated. Only slashing interest rate is not enough. Road projects are a prime example.

Cheap funds for the banks to lend out are just one aspect. What the Government is ignoring is the social aspect as well of welfare schemes.

A stock market rally based only on expectations of an interest rate cut is a temporary phenomenon. Unless backed by pickup in demand and increased Government spending, the rally will fizzle out.

The Government is helping the RBI cut rates, but the transmission of lower rates to borrowers and huge NPAs of PSU banks need to be factored in. The current market rally should last till the RBI policy. What happens next should be a period of consolidation.

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(Nishit Vadhavkar is a Quality Manager working at an IT MNC. Deciphering economics, equity markets and piercing the jargon to make it understandable to all is his passion. "We work hard for our money, our money should work even harder for us" is his motto.

Nishit blogs at Money Manthan. You can reach him at nish.stockid@gmail.com)

Will the likely interest rate cut by RBI be a non-event? – a guest post

Will he, or won’t he? That seems to be the question. Experts of different hues are expecting a 25 bps (0.25%) interest rate cut by the RBI Governor. That means, there will be no positive surprise for the stock market if the rate cut does come through.

There is also a possibility that the RBI Governor maintains status quo. That will be a negative surprise for the market and initiate a sell-off.

What if the rate cut is 50 bps or higher? The probability of that – based on Dr Rajan’s track record so far – is low. But it will be a definite positive surprise for the stock market.

In this month’s guest post, Nishit explains why the three tranches of interest rate cuts by Dr Rajan has failed to stimulate the Indian economy, and why he doesn’t expect the RBI Governor to be dovish in his announcement.

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Over the past few weeks, the impression given in the media is that an interest rate cut by RBI will stimulate the Indian economy. This is a wrong picture being portrayed. Tweaking interest rates is just one of the tools for stimulating the economy. More important are tax reforms and simplifying ease of doing business in India.

Implementation of GST will be the single biggest factor for growth of the Indian economy. Now, let us look at the interest rate cuts. Since, January the RBI has cut rates by 75 basis points (0.75%) in three tranches. The Banks have passed on barely 30 basis points (0.3%) to the end customer, citing high cost of deposits. The only exception has been HDFC Bank which has passed on 0.5-0.6% rate cut to the consumer.

What interest rate cuts do is lower the cost of deposits for Banks (has anyone noticed how quickly Banks are lowering fixed deposit rates?), but banks are not passing on the benefit of lower rates to people who borrow from Banks. This will only lead to Banks making more profits.

Also, if the RBI Governor cuts rates at a faster pace and tomorrow inflation rises how does he deal with it? In US the rates are near to 0 and they can stimulate the economy by ‘Quantitative Easing’, i.e. injecting huge sums of money into the economy by printing Bank notes. Is India in a similar position to do so?

Instead, by cutting rates slowly and allowing Banks to first transmit the rate cuts to its borrowers there are two advantages. The Governor gets more time to evaluate the inflation scenario and rate cuts get fully passed on to borrowers.

Hence the drama dutifully played up by television anchors is actually harmful in the long term. Simply cutting rates is  not the solution to all the problems in the economy. If it was that simple the World economy would not be where it is now and the US would not look at raising interest rates.

On Tuesday (Sep 29 ’15) I expect a maximum 25 basis points (0.25%) cut and I would not be surprised if there is no rate cut also.

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(Nishit Vadhavkar is a Quality Manager working at an IT MNC. Deciphering economics, equity markets and piercing the jargon to make it understandable to all is his passion. "We work hard for our money, our money should work even harder for us" is his motto.

Nishit blogs at Money Manthan. You can reach him at nish.stockid@gmail.com)

Causes and consequences of lower commodity prices – a guest post

Globally, prices of various commodities have been on a downward spiral. Prices of oil, gold, steel, copper, aluminium have reduced considerably. That should be good for the Indian economy – as India imports significant quantities of oil and gold.

Reality is a little different. Lower oil prices have shrunk our current account deficit and benefitted oil marketing companies, but not oil explorers like ONGC and Cairn. Lower metal prices have hurt banks that have large exposures to the metals sector, and producers like Tata Steel and Hindalco.

In this month’s guest post, Nishit assesses causes of lower commodity prices and their consequences. Small investors should benefit from this analysis, as it lends perspective to the commodity cycle and would enable them to fine tune their investments.

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Commodity prices are collapsing all over the world. Gold is at a 5 years low, crude oil is very near its lows. Metal prices are tanking. Why is this happening and how can we benefit from this?

First of all, commodity cycles are long drawn out affairs of over 10-12 years between peaks and troughs; which means, prices are not going to rise in a hurry. There may be some corrective spikes but prices would continue to correct over a period of time.

All these years, China was consuming and stockpiling huge hoard of resources building steel and concrete cities which fuelled a real estate boom. China also set up huge capacity of Steel production. All these led the commodity prices many times higher. Now the Chinese economy is floundering; the real estate sector has no buyers and the stock market in China is collapsing.

China has created so much capacity - what does it do with it? Obviously, it cannot be left idle. So, it is now exporting steel priced very close to the cost of production of steel in India. The Government is doing its bit by adding some anti-dumping duties. Overall, the prices remain depressed.

China was accumulating gold reserves and that was the reason price of gold was going up. Now they have started selling some gold leading to lower prices.

Now the bad news. Commodity cycle related companies like steel industry in India will be in doldrums for some time to come. Banks have huge exposure to these companies. These companies make profit equal to just about the interest payment on their loans. Forget about repaying principal amounts.

In India, people rush to buy gold at every price drop. If they buy now they will have to hold it for at least 5-6 years or maybe even longer.

Lower crude oil prices will help the Indian economy. These will also continue for some time to come - at least for this year 2015.

Having an understanding of why commodity prices are correcting will help us capitalise on them.

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(Nishit Vadhavkar is a Quality Manager working at an IT MNC. Deciphering economics, equity markets and piercing the jargon to make it understandable to all is his passion. "We work hard for our money, our money should work even harder for us" is his motto.

Nishit blogs at Money Manthan. You can reach him at nish.stockid@gmail.com)

Add some stability to your portfolio with bank fixed deposits – a guest post

The younger you are, the more should be your allocation to equities. Why? Because the longer you stay invested in equities, the greater is going to be your likely returns. Also, your financial commitments are lower when you are younger. So, you can afford to take more risks.

As you grow older, start a family and care for elderly parents, you will need more stability in your investment portfolio and additional cash flow to support your primary earnings from business or profession.

In this month’s guest post, Nishit argues in favour of bank fixed deposits. The downside to bank FDs is low returns which are taxable. The upside is safety of principal amount and facility of regular cash flows through quarterly interest payments. Using some simple investment strategies, the unexciting bank FD can add stability to your portfolio.

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Interest rates are falling. That is being touted as good news for the economy and for borrowers. Lower interest rates mean higher growth and more jobs. More jobs mean more income and more purchasing power. This whole cycle of spending, consumption and growth is likely to be triggered off by the cutting of interest rates by RBI.

RBI has already reduced rates by 75 basis points (i.e. 0.75%), and is further expected to reduce rates by about 1-2% before this cycle is over.

One of the casualties of this rate-cut cycle who goes unlamented is the senior citizen, who depends on fixed deposit (FD) interest for his livelihood. Banks are very quick to cut deposit rates and those FDs which were giving interest of 9.7% have already been reduced to 9%. In fact a study across PSU and Private Banks shows that maximum interest on FD which can be obtained now is 9%.

How does one work around this? To explain the impact, if a senior citizen has Rs 10 lakhs in FD, 9.7% interest gives him Rs 97000 and 9% gives him Rs 90000 per year. How does he make up for this Rs 7000 shortfall?

One way of doing it is locking in FDs for a period of 5 years when the rates are high. 5 years is a sufficient long period for one cycle of rate cuts to play out.

Also, once the rates start being cut, the 2-3 year FDs offer the highest rate of interest. At such times, one can go for such shorter-duration FDs.

The Senior citizen scheme from the Government, which has a 1 year lock in period, still offers 9.3% rate of interest. This rate changes only in April every year. So, one can lock in up to Rs 15 lakhs in this scheme till April ’16.

Next common question is: what about liquidity? What if one needs money urgently then how does one break the Fixed Deposit? A simple option is to break the one giving the least amount of interest. Even this can be circumvented by ensuring and planning the FDs in such a way that one FD matures every 3 months.

To do this, it requires certain amount of planning and the staggering of the FDs. Also, one can plan the FDs in such a way that every month some or the other FD gives interest. Quarterly credit of interest gives the highest returns and by staggering the FDs one can ensure a monthly flow of income while enjoying the higher returns of quarterly Interest.

The protection of capital is a must and only nationalized or top private banks FDs can be considered. This can be spread across 2-3 banks so that the risk of default is minimised.

These are some simple strategies, if followed scrupulously, can give maximum bang for the buck.

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(Nishit Vadhavkar is a Quality Manager working at an IT MNC. Deciphering economics, equity markets and piercing the jargon to make it understandable to all is his passion. "We work hard for our money, our money should work even harder for us" is his motto.

Nishit blogs at Money Manthan. You can reach him at nish.stockid@gmail.com)

Related post

About Asset Allocation – a guest post

Will a poor monsoon affect your portfolio? – a guest post

This year, monsoon rains have been conspicuous by their absence. While a few parts of the country have received excess rainfall, that has been the exception than the rule. Drought-like conditions are prevailing in many parts. In other parts, rainfall has been scanty to mediocre.

By all accounts, rainfall will be below average this year. What will be the effect of a poor monsoon on your investment portfolio? In this month’s guest post, Nishit looks at a few sectors that may get negatively affected by a poor monsoon and a few that may not do too badly.

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The monsoon this year is likely to be deficient. Which sectors and stocks will feel the impact? This is a burning question in the minds of investors. Let us try and analyse the impact of a poor monsoon.

The rainfall deficit has shrunk to about 15% from 22% a couple of weeks earlier. Also, the reservoirs are filling up. They are now 96% filled as compared to the last 10 years’ average and 80% filled as compared to last year at this point of time.

With steady rains falling across the country, there should not be any drinking water problem. Agriculture output will be hit, but there will not be food shortages - thanks to the surplus food grains of the previous years.

Having said all this, what will be the impact? The hardest hit will be the farmer. He will have less produce to sell in the markets and consequently less money to spend. All the rural focused sectors will be hit. The hit will not be immediate but come during the harvest season, a few months down the line.

The farmers will not be celebrating the festive season by buying new motorbikes. Thus, the 2 wheeler segment may face the biggest hit. When the times are down, farmers will also not invest in new tractors and farm equipment. This also means tractor manufacturers will face lean times.

In recent times, FMCG majors like HUL and ITC have risen to new all time highs based on uncertainty in the markets. They may take a major hit if the rural population cuts down on spending. Less colas and chips will be consumed. Sectors like IT (Information Technology) will be neutral to a poor monsoon. The banks may take a hit in the form of NPAs in case loans to farmers turn bad.

Amidst all this gloom, the sugar sector - especially the sugar mills having previous stock - will flourish. The farmers may not get much, but the sugar mills will benefit from higher realisations thanks to surplus inventory.

Overall, Indian GDP may come down by 0.6% or so. Surprisingly, in previous years of scanty rainfall, the stock markets have actually done well. The fiscal deficit may increase if the government comes up with any populist schemes. Higher food grain prices may lead to higher inflation forcing the RBI to go slow on interest rate cuts.

In the current scenario, it pays to focus on sectors like sugar and also sectors which may not get impacted much by a poor monsoon. PSU banks with their good dividend yields offer one area where folks with expectations of moderate returns may park their funds.

Cyclical sectors like steel and infrastructure, which are currently beaten down, can be nibbled at. Also, this may be the last chance to lock in at relatively high rate of interests. Bank FDs (ICICI Bank is still offering 10% to Sr Citizens for a period of 4.9 years and Bank of India 9.7%), NCDs (Shriram Transport offered 11.4%), some stocks would be a good mix to be invested in right now.

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(Nishit Vadhavkar is a Quality Manager working at an IT MNC. Deciphering economics, equity markets and piercing the jargon to make it understandable to all is his passion. "We work hard for our money, our money should work even harder for us" is his motto.

Nishit blogs at Money Manthan).

Bank the dividends from PSU banks

There is bad news all around. High inflation, negative IIP number, sliding GDP, increasing fiscal deficit, scams and corruption. Anything that can go wrong seems to be going wrong in India.

Add to that the uncertainty caused by debt problems in the Eurozone, which is not helping exports. No wonder the stock market is in a tailspin with no bottom in sight.

Where can one invest without losing sleep? In this month’s guest post, Nishit suggests that tax-free dividend yields of PSU banks is a good place to park your investible surplus.

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The stock market is on a downward spiral. What should investors do? Where does one park one’s cash? The classic dilemma is between safety and preservation of capital and increasing wealth. There is an unexciting part of the stock market which is often unexplored since it is not very glamorous.

These are the PSU banks. They provide steady dividend yields in excess of 5%. Dividends are not taxable in the hands of investors. So, a dividend yield of 5% is equivalent to a return of 7.2% per annum on a bank Fixed Deposit (provided one falls in the highest tax bracket).

To prove this theory I have taken two case studies of Andhra Bank and Corporation Bank. Andhra Bank has declared a dividend of Rs 5.50 per share and it is currently trading at Rs 106. This gives a dividend yield of about 5.2%.

Now, people may argue whether such a dividend will continue in the future? The answer is ‘Yes’ because Andhra Bank has been a steady dividend payer. The dividend for last year also was Rs 5.50. Before that, it was Rs 5 and before that Rs 4.50.

If the stock price goes up and one finds that one has made enough profit, the stock could be sold. The stock had hit highs of Rs 189 and Rs 159 in the previous years.

The second stock is Corporation Bank. It has declared a dividend of Rs 20.50 per share (last year it declared a dividend of Rs 20). The stock trades around Rs 400, giving a dividend yield of 5.1%.

Now, if the stock price declines due to adverse market conditions, one can always add more. Andhra Bank had hit a low of Rs 77 last December giving a dividend yield of 7.14%. Almost similar was the case with Corporation Bank.

The Government is in need of money and keeps pushing the PSUs to pay liberal dividends. The downside to this strategy is if the bank does not declare dividends at all. For this one needs to keep a cursory glance at the Quarterly results and go in for mid-sized PSU banks. The dividend may decline at the most but it is unlikely to get stopped completely.

In times of uncertainty and with questions of where to park the money, this is a low risk strategy. One could always trade in and trade out of these stocks to reduce the cost of acquisition. In 2001, I had bought Andhra Bank shares for Rs 12 in the IPO. If I had held on to them all these years, the dividend yield would have been almost 50% every year for me now.

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(Nishit Vadhavkar is a Quality Manager working at an IT MNC. Deciphering economics, equity markets and piercing the jargon to make it understandable to all is his passion. "We work hard for our money, our money should work even harder for us" is his motto.

Nishit blogs at Money Manthan.)

Which sectors should you invest in?

In an earlier post ("Market Cycles and Sectors") on Dec 1, 2008 the sectors that receive prominence during different stages of the economic and stock market cycles were discussed.

Does that mean that you, as a small investor, should look at investing in all those sectors? Probably not.

Fund managers, who are under pressure to perform in the short term, have no alternative but to move in and out of sectors depending on the particular stage of the stock market. They also have access to company managements and better research resources and larger funds than small investors.

With considerably less funds and little or no research capabilities, small investors like you and me are better off choosing only a handful of sectors to invest in.

Some industries are in an environment that helps to create substantial competitive advantage. It is easier for the companies in such industries to make money.

Four sectors that I like - based on their competitive advantage and cash generation capabilities - are :-

1.  FMCG: Strong brands built up over the years create huge competitive advantage. Companies tend to be solidly profitable, debt free and generate a ton of cash (which is distributed to investors through generous dividends). The market leaders have been around for many years, so they are slow but steady performers.

This sector is practically recession proof and should form a significant part of a small investor's core portfolio. Companies to look at are HUL, ITC, Colgate, Nestle, Brittania, Dabur, Marico.

2.  Pharmaceuticals: Like FMCG, Pharma companies are recession proof, have strong brands, are hugely profitable and good dividend payers, and long term growth is assured because of the large population. MNC Pharma companies have access to better product pipeline from their overseas parents. Domestic Pharma companies profit from generics and contract research and manufacturing.

This sector should also receive pride of place in your portfolio. Companies to look at are Glaxo Pharma, Aventis, Sun Pharma, Lupin, Glenmark.

3.  Financial Services: Banks pay less interest to depositors and lend the money at higher interests. For current account holders, banks pay nothing at all. Many make more money by selling other financial products to their customer base - such as insurance, demat accounts, credit cards, mutual funds, home loans. Home loan companies tend to be highly profitable with long term growth assured.

Companies to look at are State Bank of India, Bank of India, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, HDFC, LIC Housing Finance, Sundaram Finance.

4.  Media: Many companies have competitive advantage through regional language and regional market domination. This sector also tends to be recession proof.

The dynamics of the media business was covered in an earlier blog post on Sept. 8, 2008.

Are these the only sectors that an investor should look at? Obviously not. But this should be a good starting point in building a long term portfolio.

Future posts will cover other sectors and criteria for individual stock selection.

Start your own risk free FMP

We have now spent 9 months in a bear market. For investors who had entered the markets in the last 5 years, this is the first experience of how a bear market can destroy wealth.

What we saw in 2004 and 2006 were just bear phases in a bull market, which provided opportunities to buy.  Many small investors jumped in to buy in March and July this year - only to see that there was no real recovery in the markets.

Experts have now started talking about a 4-digit Sensex, and investors who have been in denial for the past 9 months are now thinking and talking about how to protect capital and reduce losses.

The mutual fund industry has been promoting Fixed Maturity Plans (FMPs) of 12 months+ duration and trying to explain the benefits of lower tax against a bank fixed deposit. Of late, they have even started offering 1 month FMPs - and are not mentioning anything about tax benefits!

A small investor trying to protect his capital should start his own FMP and make it completely risk free. How? It is so simple, that it is almost a no-brainer.

Let us say you have some investable cash of Rs 2 lakhs. What are your options?

a) You can buy shares at low prices and watch them go lower;

b) You can buy MF units and watch their NAV drop

c) You can park it in a bank FD for 2 years and earn 10% interest

d) Start your own FMP - start with Option (c) above, but take monthly or quarterly simple interest. Depending on your risk tolerance, set up a recurring deposit (RD) account with 20% or 50% of your monthly/quarterly interest. The balance interest should stay parked in your savings account for periodic purchases of shares and/or MF units. 

After 2 years, when your FD matures your entire capital will be intact, the RD account would be intact as well, and the shares or MF units that you purchase should start showing some real gains, as this bear market should be history by then.

Simple, isn't it? But exciting? No. But who said building wealth is exciting? It is a slow and steady and disciplined process to be carried through for many years.

(I try to preach what I practice. In Oct '07, I had sold a percentage of my holdings in shares and MF units when the market looked overbought. With the proceeds, I opened a 3 years FD with a leading private bank. 20% of the quarterly interest earned is reinvested in a RD. The balance interest is accumulating in a savings account. I have slowly started to reinvest in shares and MF units.)