In a holiday-curtailed trading week, FIIs were net sellers of equity during the first three days, but net buyers on Thu. (Feb 20). Their total net buying was worth Rs 8.56 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon., Tue. and Thu. (Feb 17, 18 and 20), but net buyers on Wed. (Feb 19). Their total net selling was worth Rs 5.73 Billion, as per provisional figures.
On a YoY basis in Jan '20, India's passenger vehicle, commercial vehicle and two-wheeler registrations contracted by 4.6%, 6.8% and 8.9% respectively. Registrations for three-wheelers and tractors grew by 9.2% and 5.1%.
As per ASPA, India's counterfeit auto parts market was worth Rs 1 Trillion in 2019 - adversely affecting the automobile industry. Selling spurious parts results in a tax revenue loss of Rs 22 Billion to the government.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex oscillated about its 20 day and 50 day EMAs, while trading sideways within a range of 800 points during a truncated trading week. The index managed to close above the 41000 level, but lost about 90 odd points on a weekly closing basis.
Daily technical indicators are in neutral zones - not giving any directional signals. MACD is moving sideways above its signal line. RSI is treading water near its 50% level. (Since Nov '19, MACD and RSI have been showing negative divergences by forming bearish patterns of 'lower tops, lower bottoms'.) Slow stochastic is rising towards its 50% level after falling below it.
After touching a lifetime high of 42274 on Jan 20th, and forming a large 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) that often signifies an intermediate top, the index has been consolidating sideways within a 'symmetrical triangle' pattern.
Sensex may also be completing a two months long 'diamond' pattern. A 'symmetrical triangle' or a 'diamond' pattern can act as a continuation pattern. But they can also act as 'reversal' patterns.
So, will the index breakout upwards or downwards? The negative divergences visible on MACD and RSI - which have touched lower tops for the past four months - may tilt the balance towards bears.
Small investors should keep their bullish bets small and stop-losses tight. It may be prudent to wait for the eventual breakout - which should happen sooner than later - before placing any large buy or sell orders.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty closed above its three weekly EMAs and the psychological level of 12000, but lost about 30 odd points on a weekly closing basis. A bullish pattern of 'higher tops, higher bottoms' - formed during the past 18 months - shows that bulls are dominating.
The index has failed to make any upward progress since touching a lifetime high of 12430 four weeks back. Nifty needs to cross convincingly above 12500 for the bull rally to progress further. However, a slowing economy and a rapidly spreading corona virus has negated bullish fervour.
Weekly technical indicators are looking neutral to bearish. MACD is sliding down below its signal line after falling from its overbought zone. RSI has moved above its 50% level but its upward momentum has stalled. Slow stochastic has crossed above its 50% level after falling below it.
Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up a bit to 27.50, which is well above its long-term average in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is oscillating about the edge of its oversold zone, hinting at more near-term index consolidation.
Bottomline? After touching lifetime highs in Jan '20, Sensex and Nifty charts have been consolidating sideways. With the budget and Q3 (Dec '19) results out of the way, very few positive triggers are left for the stock market in the near-term. Investors should stay invested, but maintain stop-losses.
On a YoY basis in Jan '20, India's passenger vehicle, commercial vehicle and two-wheeler registrations contracted by 4.6%, 6.8% and 8.9% respectively. Registrations for three-wheelers and tractors grew by 9.2% and 5.1%.
As per ASPA, India's counterfeit auto parts market was worth Rs 1 Trillion in 2019 - adversely affecting the automobile industry. Selling spurious parts results in a tax revenue loss of Rs 22 Billion to the government.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex oscillated about its 20 day and 50 day EMAs, while trading sideways within a range of 800 points during a truncated trading week. The index managed to close above the 41000 level, but lost about 90 odd points on a weekly closing basis.
Daily technical indicators are in neutral zones - not giving any directional signals. MACD is moving sideways above its signal line. RSI is treading water near its 50% level. (Since Nov '19, MACD and RSI have been showing negative divergences by forming bearish patterns of 'lower tops, lower bottoms'.) Slow stochastic is rising towards its 50% level after falling below it.
After touching a lifetime high of 42274 on Jan 20th, and forming a large 'reversal day' bar (higher high, lower close) that often signifies an intermediate top, the index has been consolidating sideways within a 'symmetrical triangle' pattern.
Sensex may also be completing a two months long 'diamond' pattern. A 'symmetrical triangle' or a 'diamond' pattern can act as a continuation pattern. But they can also act as 'reversal' patterns.
So, will the index breakout upwards or downwards? The negative divergences visible on MACD and RSI - which have touched lower tops for the past four months - may tilt the balance towards bears.
Small investors should keep their bullish bets small and stop-losses tight. It may be prudent to wait for the eventual breakout - which should happen sooner than later - before placing any large buy or sell orders.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty closed above its three weekly EMAs and the psychological level of 12000, but lost about 30 odd points on a weekly closing basis. A bullish pattern of 'higher tops, higher bottoms' - formed during the past 18 months - shows that bulls are dominating.
The index has failed to make any upward progress since touching a lifetime high of 12430 four weeks back. Nifty needs to cross convincingly above 12500 for the bull rally to progress further. However, a slowing economy and a rapidly spreading corona virus has negated bullish fervour.
Weekly technical indicators are looking neutral to bearish. MACD is sliding down below its signal line after falling from its overbought zone. RSI has moved above its 50% level but its upward momentum has stalled. Slow stochastic has crossed above its 50% level after falling below it.
Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up a bit to 27.50, which is well above its long-term average in overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is oscillating about the edge of its oversold zone, hinting at more near-term index consolidation.
Bottomline? After touching lifetime highs in Jan '20, Sensex and Nifty charts have been consolidating sideways. With the budget and Q3 (Dec '19) results out of the way, very few positive triggers are left for the stock market in the near-term. Investors should stay invested, but maintain stop-losses.
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