Friday, March 4, 2016

Stock Chart Pattern - Cummins India (An Update)

The previous post was written more than 3 years ago, when the Rs 2 face value stock had soared past the Rs 500 mark. It subsequently corrected with the broader market and closed at a low of 374 in Aug '13.

A spectacular bull rally followed. After crossing above the 800 level with a strong volume surge, all four technical indicators entered their overbought zones. 

The stock entered an 8 months long sideways consolidation within a 'rectangle' pattern, from which a sharp upward break out propelled the stock above the 1000 level.

The daily closing chart of Cummins India formed a small 'double top' reversal pattern during Aug '15 - gaining more than 200% from its Aug '13 low, but all four technical indicators again showed overbought conditions.

The stock entered a 7 months long down trend (marked by blue down trend line) that is still continuing. The 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA technically confirmed a bear market.

After closing at a 52 week low of 809.50 on Feb 29 '16 - correcting 32% from its Aug '15 'double top' - the stock had a 'V' shaped recovery that is facing twin resistances from its falling 20 day EMA and the 880 level. 

In one of those strange coincidences that often occur in price charts, the 880 level happens to be the mid-point of the 'rectangle' within which the stock consolidated from Nov '14 to Jul '15 and acted as a 'support/resistance' level. 

Daily technical indicators have corrected oversold conditions but haven't quite turned bullish yet.

The company is a shining example of the PM's "Make in India" campaign. It not only makes in India to sell in India, it also designs and makes in India for selling in Africa, Europe, Middle East and Mexico.

Slow down in exports - particularly to Europe and Middle East - has hurt both top and bottom lines. But the company is one of the best in the Capital Goods sector - zero debt, excellent reserves, strong cash flows and a regular dividend payer.

A dip towards 830 or a convincing move above 880 can be used to add. 

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