Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Nov 20, 2019)

FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Tue. (Nov 18 and 19), but were net buyers on Wed. (Nov 20). Their total net selling was worth Rs 6.2 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on on all three trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 7.5 Billion, as per provisional figures.

Economists at SBI, Capital Economics and Nomura have lowered their Q2 (Sep '19) GDP growth forecasts to figures between 4.2% and 4.7%. Q2 GDP data will be published on Nov 29.

The government remains in denial. Jr Finance Minister stated in Parliament that there is no 5% GDP growth slowdown and the government has no intention of revising the fiscal deficit target.


The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty has been consolidating sideways within a 'rectangle' pattern for the past three weeks. The index is still struggling to cross above the 12000 level in a convincing manner.

A 'rectangle' usually acts as a 'continuation' pattern. Since the index is trading above its three rising EMAs in a bull market, the likely breakout from the 'rectangle' is upwards.

However, a 'rectangle' is also an unreliable pattern. That means, a downward breakout can't be ruled out. It may be prudent to wait for the breakout before taking any buy/sell decision.

Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing much upward momentum. MACD is moving sideways below its falling signal line. RSI is gradually moving up towards its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is also moving sideways. 

All three indicators are showing negative divergences by failing to move up towards their previous highs. Some more consolidation within the 'rectangle', or a correction towards 11700 is possible. 

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved down to 27.23, which remains well inside its overbought zone and much higher than its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is moving down sharply in neutral zone, and may limit near-term index upside.

The index rally during the past couple of days has been narrow, and led mainly by a spurt in the price of RIL. Caution is advised for those who are getting ready to jump into the market.

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