Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Nov 06, 2019)

FIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. Nov 4, but were net buyers during the next two trading days this week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 13.5 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on on all three trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 32.1 Billion, as per provisional figures.

Nikkei India's Services PMI rose to 49.2 in Oct '19 from 48.7 in Sep '19, but remained below 50 (indicating contraction) for the second straight month. The Composite (Manufacturing + Services) PMI dropped to a 2 year low of 49.6 - pointing to further weakness in India's economy.

Four major Indian drug makers - Cadila (Moraiya plant), Glenmark (Baddi plant), Lupin (Mandideep plus two other plants), Aurobindo (two Hyderabad plants) - have received warning letters from US FDA, showing a hardening stance towards lapses in quality control.


The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty is trying to continue its rally towards a new high on the back of FII buying. However, selling by DIIs has kept the upward march of the index in check.

The index is struggling a bit to overcome resistance from the 12000 level while it trades well above its three rising EMAs in a bull market. The previous (Jun 3) top of 12103 is within touching distance.

Daily technical indicators are looking overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line inside overbought zone. RSI is moving sideways along the edge of its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is also moving sideways, inside its overbought zone. Some consolidation or a correction towards 11700 is possible. 

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 27.71, which is well inside its overbought zone and much higher than its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is moving up in neutral zone, and may limit near-term index upside.

India's economy is heading southwards - as is evident from most macroeconomic indicators. But Nifty is moving north on expectations of more reforms. 

Unless banks become more realistic about narrowing their spreads on loans, economic growth revival will remain a distant dream. Periodic reform announcements are boosting short-term bullish sentiments in the market, but neither helping rural distress nor encouraging consumption.

This is not the time to be brave. Stay invested, carry on with investment plans but avoid large bets on 'cheap' stocks. 

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