Sunday, October 27, 2019

Sensex, Nifty charts (Oct 25, 2019): bears refusing to release their grip on the market

In a holiday-shortened trading week, both FIIs and DIIs were net sellers of equity, putting paid to bullish hopes of new index highs by Diwali. FIIs were net sellers of equity on all four trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 12.8 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity Tue. through Thu. (Oct 22-24), but net buyers on Fri. Their total net selling was worth Rs 14.2 Billion, as per provisional figures.

Reforms in land management, enforcing contracts and providing adequate resources to district level courts could be the next big measures through which India can improve its 'Ease of Doing Business' rankings, as per World Bank president David Malpass.

A former European trade commissioner said India needs to remove trade barriers and improve road and port infrastructure if it wants to benefit from movement of supply chains from China. Corporate tax cut was a "smart move" but "insufficient" to attract investors.

BSE Sensex index chart pattern


The following comment had appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "The breakout hasn't been a technically convincing one yet, because accompanying volumes (not shown) were not significantly higher during the trend line breach."

As FIIs and DIIs turned net sellers during the week, the index consolidated with a downward bias near the down trend line and closed just below the trend line by Fri. Oct 25.

Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, but only RSI is showing upward momentum by rising towards its overbought zone. MACD is moving sideways above its rising signal line. ROC is oscillating at the edge of its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is poised to fall from its overbought zone. More near-term index consolidation or correction is likely.

All three EMAs are rising, and the index is trading above them in a bull market. However, bears have yet to release their grip on the market. So, be very selective if you opt to follow a 'buy the dip' strategy.

Partial setbacks for the NDA in the recently concluded state elections in Maharashtra and Haryana - where they failed to win overwhelming majorities they had expected - have turned investors a little cautious. The silver lining is that the government may be forced to pay greater attention to the faltering economy.

NSE Nifty index chart pattern


The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty had breached the (blue) down trend line on the back of FII buying a week ago. As FIIs and DIIs turned sellers, the index pulled back to the trend line - dashing any possibility of a new index high by Diwali.

Weekly technical indicators are looking neutral to bullish. MACD and RSI are at their respective neutral zones. ROC and Slow stochastic have risen to the edges of their respective overbought zones. Some near-term index consolidation or correction is likely.

Nifty's TTM P/E has slipped down to 26.70 - which remains well above its long-term average inside overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has bounced up sharply from overbought zone. Some near-term index consolidation is possible. 

Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are consolidating after breaching 4 months old down trend lines. A cut in corporate taxes boosted bullish sentiments. Tepid Q2 results have poured cold water on buying enthusiasm. Stay invested. Avoid any bulk buying in 'cheap' stocks.

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