Sunday, October 20, 2019

Sensex, Nifty charts (Oct 18, 2019): down trend lines breached; new highs on the cards?

FIIs were net buyers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net buying was worth Rs 32.1 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Thu. (Oct 14 and 17), but net buyers on the other three days of the week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 21.8 Billion, as per provisional figures.

According to a Nielsen report, India's FMCG market clocked a value growth of 7.3% during Q2 (Sep '19) - down from 16.2% during Q2 (Sep '18) - as rural growth dropped below urban growth for the first time in 7 years.  

The IMF has supported India's monetary policy stimulus and recent reduction in corporate income tax, which are expected to help revive investment. However, India should address continued fiscal consolidation and the NBFC issues.

BSE Sensex index chart pattern



The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex got a sharp bullish boost as FIIs turned buyers during the week. The index breached the (blue) down trend line that has dominated the chart for the past four months.

The breakout hasn't been a technically convincing one yet, because accompanying volumes (not shown) were not significantly higher during the trend line breach. That can change if FIIs continue to buy, and small investors decide to join the bandwagon. 

Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is moving above its signal line in bullish zone. ROC is poised to enter its overbought zone. RSI is above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has entered its overbought zone. More near-term index upside is possible, but some consolidation or correction may follow.

All three EMAs are rising, and the index is trading well above them in a bull market. If FIIs continue their buying spree, the market may celebrate a new index high by Diwali.

Just a handful of large-cap stocks - like RIL, HUL, HDFC Bank - are leading the rally. Small investors who are itching to jump into the market should follow a SIP mode when buying stocks. Avoid lump sum buying in beaten down small-cap stocks.

The stock market provides opportunities during bull and bear phases. However, buying near an all-time index high is not a great idea. 

NSE Nifty index chart pattern



The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty rallied to breach the (blue) down trend line, thanks to strong buying by FIIs. The break out has not been a convincing one yet, but that can change if FIIs continue buying.

Weekly technical indicators are looking neutral to bullish. MACD and RSI are at their respective neutral zones, but showing upward momentum. ROC has risen to the edge of its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is rising above its 50% level. Some more near-term index upside is possible.

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 26.94 - which is well above its long-term average inside overbought zone. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is falling in neutral zone, and can limit near-term index upside. 

Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts have breached their 4 months old down trend lines. A cut in corporate taxes, followed by FII buying have boosted bullish sentiments. Both indices might try to touch new highs by Diwali.

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