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Tuesday, December 27, 2016

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: consolidating sideways after touching new highs

WTI Crude Oil chart


The following remarks were made in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: " ... a bearish 'shooting star' candlestick pattern has been formed. Some correction and consolidation is likely to follow."

Oil's price corrected down to 50 on Dec 15 - thanks to a 25 bps interest rate hike by the US Fed - but bounced up the next day after receiving good support from its rising 20 day EMA. 

During the past week, oil's price consolidated sideways in a range between 52 and 54. All three EMAs are rising, and oil's price is trading above them in a bull market.

Volumes have tapered off - as it does every year around Christmas and New Year. Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing any upward momentum. Some more consolidation is likely.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price has closed above its rising 20 week and 50 week EMAs, but below its sliding 200 week EMA in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators are bullish, but Slow stochastic is looking overbought.

Brent Crude Oil chart


The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil had formed a bearish 'shooting star' candlestick pattern on Dec 12, and was expected to undergo some correction and consolidation.

Oil's price consolidated sideways in a range between 53 and 56.50, forming 'symmetrical triangle' pattern. Such triangles tend to be unreliable, because a breakout can occur in either direction.

Oil's price is trading above its three rising EMAs in a bull market. Daily technical indicators are giving conflicting signals. MACD is in the process of correcting from its overbought zone. RSI is moving sideways above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has dropped below its 50% level.

Note that volumes have fallen considerably - which is usually the case during the year-end. Unless volumes pick up, oil's price may fall below the support level of 53.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price has closed above its 20 week and 50 week EMAs, but well below its falling 200 week EMA in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators are bullish, but Slow stochastic is looking overbought.

1 comment:

Subhankar said...

Shale Specter Haunts OPEC as Oil Seen Rallying Into 2017

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-27/shale-specter-haunts-opec-s-feast-as-oil-seen-rallying-into-2017-ix6qxjn0