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Tuesday, November 8, 2016

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: correct sharply below large rising wedge patterns

WTI Crude Oil chart


The following comment appeared in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil: "The entire rally since the Aug '16 low may be forming a large 'rising wedge' pattern from which the likely breakout is downwards."

Four days after the previous post, oil's price closed below its 20 day EMA and the support level of 49. That triggered a sharp correction below the 50 day EMA, the lower edge of a large 'rising wedge' pattern and the 200 day EMA - back into bear territory.

All three daily technical indicators are looking oversold. A pullback towards the 200 day EMA and the lower edge of the 'rising wedge' may have started. Bears will probably use the opportunity to sell again.

Speculative buying on hopes of a production freeze by OPEC nations had caused the price rally during Sep-Oct '16. Those hopes have begun to fade as the long feud between Iran and Saudi Arabia is rearing its ugly head again.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price has closed below its entangled 20 week and 50 week EMAs, and well below its sliding 200 week EMA in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish and showing downward momentum.

Brent Crude Oil chart



The following comment appeared in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil: "There is a possibility that the downward channel may turn out to be a 'flag' or a 'falling wedge' - both of which have bullish implications." 

What had looked like a small 'flag' turned out to be the early stage of a sharp correction below a large 'rising wedge' pattern, which dropped oil's price below its three EMAs into bear territory.

Daily technical indicators are looking oversold, but showing some signs of a recovery. A pullback towards the 200 day EMA and the lower edge of the 'rising wedge' is likely.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price has closed below its entangled 20 week and 50 week EMAs, and well below its sliding 200 week EMA in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators have turned bearish and showing downward momentum.

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