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Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Gold and Silver charts: forming bearish 'flag' patterns?

Gold chart pattern


The following comments appeared in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Gold: "All three daily technical indicators are in their respective oversold zones. An upward bounce may occur at any time."

After an initial bounce that faced resistance from the 200 day EMA, gold's price rose gradually above its falling 20 day EMA but couldn't overcome resistance from the 1280 level.

In the process, a small 'ascending triangle' pattern appears to have formed - from which an upward breakout (above 1280) is likely. The zone between 1290 and 1310 is expected to provide resistance to a further up move.

All three daily technical indicators are showing upward momentum. MACD is rising above its signal line inside negative zone. RSI is facing resistance from its 50% level while Slow stochastic is facing resistance from the edge of its overbought zone.

It is quite possible that what is looking like an 'ascending triangle' may evolve into a bearish 'flag' pattern - in which case, gold's price can drop below 1220. Let the pattern play out fully before deciding to buy or sell.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price has moved up to close above its 50 week and 200 week EMAs in bull territory. However, the 'golden cross' of the 50 week EMA above the 200 week EMA is still awaited. Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish. 

Silver chart pattern



The daily bar chart pattern of Silver has made a gradual recovery from bear territory by moving above the 17.50 level and the 200 day EMA, but is facing resistance from the falling 20 day EMA.

Silver's price appears to have formed a small 'ascending triangle' pattern from which an upward breakout (above 18) can occur. Expect strong resistance from the zone between 18.25 and 18.50 and the falling 50 day EMA.

Daily technical indicators are showing some upward momentum, but MACD and RSI are still in bearish zones. 

The chart structure suggests that there is a good chance that what is looking like an 'ascending triangle' may actually turn out to be a bearish 'flag' pattern.

In which case, silver's price can fall to 16. So, caution is advised. Let the pattern play out before jumping in to buy/sell.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), silver’s price has moved up to close above its 50 week EMA, but is trading well below its 20 week and 200 week EMAs in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish.

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