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Tuesday, October 25, 2016

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: correcting after sharp rallies

WTI Crude Oil chart

The daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil corrected below the 50 level, formed a small 'double bottom' pattern and then rose with good volume support to touch a new 52 week intra-day high above the 52 level on Oct 19.

Oil's price subsequently corrected below 50 on Oct 24, but bounced up a bit after receiving good support from its rising 20 day EMA. All three EMAs are rising, and oil's price is trading above them in a bull market.

Note that all three daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, but touched lower tops (marked by blue arrows) when oil's price rose higher. The combined negative divergences triggered a correction.

The entire rally since the Aug '16 low may be forming a large 'rising wedge' pattern from which the likely breakout is downwards.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price is trading above its 20 week and 50 week EMAs but well below its sliding 200 week EMA in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones, but not showing any upward momentum.

Brent Crude Oil chart

The following comments appeared in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil: "Fundamentally, not much has changed on the supply front. Some correction or consolidation can be expected."

Since then, oil's price has been correcting within a downward-sloping channel. On Oct 24, it dropped below its 20 day EMA intra-day, but bounced up after receiving good support from the 50.50 level.

Daily technical indicators are looking bearish and showing downward momentum. Some more correction/consolidation within the channel is likely.

There is a possibility that the downward channel may turn out to be a 'flag' or a 'falling wedge' - both of which have bullish implications. 

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price is trading above its 20 week and 50 week EMAs but well below its sliding 200 week EMA in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones but showing a bit of downward momentum.

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