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Tuesday, October 11, 2016

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: breakout upwards after OPEC production freeze understanding

WTI Crude Oil chart

The daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil broke out above the blue down trend line with strong volume support on Sep 28 - negating the 'descending triangle' pattern (refer previous post).

Oil's price continued to rally and touched a 4-months high on Oct 10. All three EMAs are rising in tandem, and oil's price is trading above them in a bull market.

Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones and looking overbought. Some correction or consolidation is likely.

A tentative agreement on a production freeze by OPEC members at their informal meeting in end-September gave speculators a free run in the futures market. Whether an actual agreement takes place or not remains to be seen.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price is trading above its entangled 20 week and 50 week EMAs but well below its sliding 200 week EMA in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones.

Brent Crude Oil chart

The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil broke out above the blue down trend line with strong volume support on Sep 28. After a brief pullback that received good support from the trend line, oil's price rallied to touch a new 52 week high on Oct 10.

The 'descending triangle' pattern - mentioned in the previous post - was negated by speculative fervour as OPEC countries announced a tentative production freeze at their end-Sept. meeting in Algiers.

Oil's price is trading above its three rising EMAs in a bull market. Daily technical indicators are looking a bit overbought.

Fundamentally, not much has changed on the supply front. Some correction or consolidation can be expected. 

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price is trading above its 20 week and 50 week EMAs but well below its sliding 200 week EMA in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones.

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