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Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Gold and Silver charts: surge ahead on BrExit tailwind

Gold chart pattern


The daily bar chart pattern of Gold had formed a 'reversal day' bar on Jun 16 with good volume support. That had triggered a correction that found support from the rising 50 day EMA on Jun 23.

The unexpected result of the BrExit referendum sent global stock markets on a free fall. Investors rushed to the 'safe haven' of the yellow metal. Gold's price spiked up to 1360 with a huge volume surge.

The initial panic has subsided. Nothing has changed on the ground yet. The process for UK to leave the EU will be long drawn out. Expect some consolidation around current price.

Note that gold's price has been in a bull market since the 'golden cross' of the 50 day EMA above the 200 day EMA occurred in Feb '16. BrExit merely initiated the next leg of the bull rally.

Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, and looking a bit overbought. If you wish to enter, use any dip towards 1300 to do so. 

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price closed above its three weekly EMAs in long-term bull territory for the 4th week in a row. Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish but overbought. A correction or some consolidation is likely.

Silver chart pattern


The daily bar chart pattern of Silver had formed a 'reversal day' bar on Jun 16 with good volume support, which had triggered a sideways consolidation that found support from the rising 20 day EMA on Jun 24.

BrExit concerns led to a price spurt that fell short of 18.50. The subsequent rally on strong volumes took silver's price all the way to 20 - a level last seen in Aug '14.

The rally looks speculative and overdone. All three technical indicators are inside their overbought zones, and showing negative divergences by failing to touch new highs with silver's price.

A possible dip towards 18 can be used to add.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), silver’s price closed above its falling 200 week EMA in long-term bull territory after more than 3 years. All three weekly technical indicators are looking overbought. A pullback towards the 200 week EMA is likely.

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