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Tuesday, February 24, 2015

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: an update

WTI Crude chart

WTI Crude_Feb2315

The following comments appeared in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude oil: “A convincing move above the 50 day EMA and the 58 level may provide the first sign that a change of trend is in the offing. However, oil’s price is trading well below its falling 200 day EMA in a long-term bear market. So, it may be too early to even hope for a trend change.”

Despite strong volumes on up-days, oil’s price consolidated sideways in a range between 47.50 and 54.50 - facing strong resistance from its 50 day EMA. A drop below 47.50 may lead to a test of the Jan ‘15 low of 43.

Daily technical indicators are turning bearish. MACD is above its signal line, but has stopped moving up and looks ready to drop back into negative territory. RSI has crossed below its 50% level. Slow stochastic is falling rapidly towards its 50% level.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil’s price is trading well below its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators corrected oversold conditions, but their upward momentum has stalled. The bear market rally may be over.

Brent Crude chart

BrentCrude_Feb2315

The following comments appeared in the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude oil: “Only a convincing move above the medium-term moving average and the 64 level may weaken the bear grip. However,  oil’s price is trading well below its 200 day EMA – which means a trend change isn’t going to occur anytime soon.”

The 20 day EMA acted like a ramp, and took oil’s price above the 50 day EMA for seven straight trading sessions. But the resistance level of 64 proved too strong a hurdle. Oil’s price closed just below its 50 day EMA, and is trading well below its 200 day EMA in a bear market.

All three technical indicators are in bullish zones, but showing downward momentum. A drop below the 20 day EMA may bring oil’s bear market rally to an end.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil’s price is trading well below its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bear market. Technical indicators corrected oversold conditions, but have failed to enter bullish zones.

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