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Tuesday, November 20, 2012

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: an update

WTI Crude chart

WTI Crude_Nov1912

The 6 months daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude oil managed to overcome the resistance from its 20 day EMA and the 88 level to close just above its 50 day EMA. However, up-day volumes (in green) continue to be less than down-day volumes (in red). Bears are still ruling the chart.

Daily technical indicators are turning bullish. MACD is negative, but has crossed above its signal line and both lines are rising. RSI and slow stochastic have climbed above their 50% levels.

WTI Crude oil price may move up to test the resistance from its falling 200 day EMA. Bears are likely to use the opportunity to sell. The price rise appears more due to speculation about possible escalation of the conflict in the Gaza strip, and not due to any actual supply shortfall.

Brent Crude chart

BrentCrude_Nov1912_weekly

After spending 5 weeks below its 20 week and 50 week EMAs, Brent Crude oil is trying to cross above its two EMAs. Whether it manages to close above the two EMAs by the end of the week will depend on how much follow-up buying the bulls can arrange.

Weekly technical indicators are showing some bullish signs. MACD is marginally negative and trying to cross above its signal line. RSI is barely above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is below its 50% level, but rising.

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The long-term bull market is intact – as is evident from the rising 200 week EMA. But bears may not be ready yet to surrender their advantage.

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