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Tuesday, December 27, 2011

10 Reasons why small investors should love a bear market

Most small investors detest a bear market. The helpless feeling of watching stocks bought with hard-earned money falling into oblivion can be quite traumatic, and cause sleepless nights.

In a desperate and misguided effort to salvage a losing position, investors start ‘averaging’ – buying more shares at progressively lower prices. The stock doesn’t know that some one is ‘averaging’ it – and keeps going down further! The ‘average’ price of the stock decreases, but the losses increase.

Is there any remedy for this fairly common ailment? Turn a disastrous situation into a learning experience. Find out the reasons why small investors should love a bear market. Here are 10 of them.

1. Every one loves bargains. The best bargains in stocks are found during a bear market. Good stocks are available at 40%-50%-60% discounts to their recent peak values.

2. Experts and analysts appearing on TV or writing in business papers stop recommending third rate stocks. They may actually discuss about some decent companies. No longer will you hear that Suzlon is a great buy or Bartronics is the next Infosys.

3. Email or cell phone inboxes will not get overloaded with SMS stock tips about unknown companies from unknown brokerage houses. Most of those brokerages go belly-up during a bear market.

4. No one wants to discuss about stocks at weddings or college reunions. One can actually have intellectually stimulating conversations with relatives and friends – instead of saying “I’ve bought this” or asking “Why did you sell that?”

5. Working hours will not be wasted by staring at stock tickers scrolling on computer terminals. Up to the minute stock updates on cell phones will get disabled. Productivity at work places will improve.

6. One can get a haircut or a shoeshine in peace without getting stock tips from the barber or the shoeshine boy.

7. A bear market separates the short-term, one-hit rock-star companies from the true long-term wealth creating companies. The stocks that don’t fall much in a bear market are the ones that provide dividend income and stability to your portfolio.

8. If one is unfortunate enough to come face to face with a bear in a forest, the best thing to do is not to run or try to fight but to play dead. In the stock market, one can play dead by investing in fixed income avenues. Interest rates are usually higher at such times.

9. The importance of proper asset allocation becomes clear. Spreading investments among equity, fixed income, gold and cash not only saves a portfolio from annihilation but the asset allocation gives clear signals about when to buy and when to sell.

10. A bear market tests an investor’s mettle. Those who turn tail and run are just not meant to be successful investors. Those who can stick it out and learn from their mistakes are the ones who may be able to build wealth over the long term. 

3 comments:

Nasir said...

Subhankar, articles like these may not be of much interest to those following your technical analysis posts, but this is what make me subscribe to your blog and keep coming back for more. Thanks for these thoughts.

Regards,
Nasir

Disciple of God said...

So Subhankar - which companies in your view are ripe for investment?

Subhankar said...

@Nasir: Appreciate the kind words.

@DoG: That question was answered a long time ago by Benjamin Graham (P/E x P/BV <= 22.5). I have no reason to have a different view!