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Sunday, October 2, 2011

Two market breadth indicators (an update)


Six weeks have elapsed since my previous post on two Nifty breadth indicators - the A-D line and the TRIN. During this period, the Nifty consolidated in a rectangular range between 4700 and 5200, just below the large descending triangle pattern it had formed since the top of Nov '10. Here is a quick update on the two market breadth indicators.

Nifty A-D Line


The A-D line has tracked the Nifty's fall since the Nov '10 peak with some notable exceptions. During Feb '11 to Apr '11, the Nifty made a series of three higher bottoms, while the A-D line reached three lower bottoms. In the rally that followed, the Nifty reached a higher top in Apr '11 than the top in Feb '11. But the A-D line's Apr '11 top was at the same level as its Feb '11 top. These negative divergences were a warning that the next down leg in the Nifty was imminent.

Again, the Jun '11 bottom on the Nifty was at the same level as the second bottom in Feb '11. But the A-D line touched a much lower bottom in Jun '11 - a negative divergence that suggested that the subsequent rally may be short-lived. What the A-D line does not indicate is exactly when the negative (or positive) divergences will affect Nifty's movements.

Last week, the Nifty made a higher bottom within the trading range, but the A-D line touched a slightly lower bottom. The negative divergence is a likely precursor to more selling in the coming week.

Nifty TRIN


 There are a couple of interesting points to note on the Nifty TRIN chart. In end-Aug '11, when the Nifty fell to its 52 week low after breaking down below the descending triangle pattern, the TRIN spiked to 1.25. A value of 1.2 or higher means the market is oversold and due for a rally.

The rally followed almost immediately, but the Nifty quickly reached an overbought condition - as indicated by the sharp drop of the TRIN below 0.75. A correction in the Nifty followed, but the TRIN is not indicating an oversold condition as yet. We can, therefore, conclude that the correction in the Nifty isn't over yet.

Both the A-D line and the TRIN are pointing to a further correction in the Nifty. Any upward bounces are likely to attract selling. As with all technical indicators, these two are not fool-proof and should be used in conjunction with other indicators like EMA crossovers, slow stochastic, ROC, RSI.

(Charts from: www.icharts.in)

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