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Friday, July 1, 2011

Announcing re-opening of paid subscriptions to my Monthly Investment Newsletter

I am pleased to announce the re-opening of paid subscriptions to my monthly investment newsletter for a 3 weeks period from July 1-21, 2011. Only a limited number of subscriptions will be offered – strictly on a first-come first-served basis – to enable me to provide personalised attention and guidance to each subscriber.

If you are interested in subscribing, please send an email to: mobugobu@yahoo.com at the earliest for details. Your email address will be kept in confidence.

The newsletter has completed 18 issues. The past few months have been a challenging and humbling experience for me. It was a challenge to find stocks with growth potential at reasonable prices while the Sensex kept reaching new 52 week highs through most of 2010. The prolonged 8 months long corrective phase since Nov ‘10 has been humbling because many stocks have not performed up to expectations, and yet subscribers have kept faith in my stock picking abilities.

Those who have been following my blog posts regularly know by now what kind of stocks I like, and what type of stocks I avoid. The guiding principle has been to choose well-managed, financially sound companies that give steady (rather than spectacular) returns and have growth prospects.

Non-subscribers may be interested to know how the recommended stocks have fared. Without revealing the names of the stocks (it won’t be fair to my subscribers to do so), here is a brief results table with prices on recommended dates, subsequent high and low prices, and gains/(loss) in percentage as on July 1 ‘11:

Stock

Date

Price

High

Low

Close

Gain/(Loss)

1a

Jan ‘10

206

399

195

374

81.5

1b

Jan ‘10

131

316

120

185

41.2

2

Feb ‘10

78

94

55

65

(16.7)

3

Mar ‘10

178

305

168

236

32.6

4

Apr ‘10

82

116

61

73

(11)

5

May ‘10

171

247

85

125

(26.9)

6

Jun ‘10

101

156

98

127

25.7

7

Jul ‘10

285

305

213

230

(19.3)

8

Aug ‘10

274

434

264

421

53.6

9

Sep ‘10

130

141

95

123

(5.4)

10

Oct ‘10

120

135

89

108

(10)

11

Nov ‘10

101

150

55

71

(29.7)

12

Dec ‘10

53

59

37

48

(9.4)

13

Jan ‘11

91

122

90

116

27.5

14

Feb ‘11

294

329

257

295

0.03

15

Mar ‘11

444

502

405

480

8.1

16

Apr ‘11

107

117

95

105

(1.9)

17

May ‘11

275

280

250

277

0.07

All 18 stocks are small or mid-caps, picked for long-term investment of minimum 2 to 3 years. The fact that some of them are showing decent gains – even after falling from their highs - is a testimony to their underlying strength. Note that 9 of the 18 stocks are showing losses. That gives me a ‘hit ratio’ of only 50% – which is no better than tossing a coin.

But have a look at the ‘High’ column. One stock more than doubled, five gained 50% and every single stock moved up after my recommendations. In a 2-3 year time frame, I expect most of the laggards to make up the slack.

What is important to appreciate is that these stocks were not ‘cheap’ and had already run up quite a bit when they were recommended. The lesson is that even near 52 week highs and subsequent corrective phases of the Sensex, there are stocks available that can provide decent returns. Since the recommended stocks are all regular dividend payers, the actual returns will be higher.

If you need help in selecting good stocks in uncertain times, all you need to do is subscribe to my Monthly Investment Newsletter. Send me an email (at mobugobu@yahoo.com) soon – subscriptions will close on July 21, 2011.

2 comments:

Ajay said...

Dear Sir,

As per your blogs, you should be at a loss of max. 10%, bocoz u always say that to add a stoploss. Is it not applicable in this case?

Subhankar said...

You are quite right, Ajay.

The stop-losses help to limit an investor's losses. But the stock prices are not aware of the stop-loss levels - so they keep rising and falling as they please.

The table shows the closing prices on a particular date and how much the stocks have gained or lost from the dates of recommendations. It has no relation to what an individual investor may have gained or lost.