FIIs
were net sellers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 40.09 Billion. DIIs
were net buyers of equity on Wed. and Thu. (Apr 22 and 23), but net
sellers on the other three days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 6.49 Billion, as per provisional figures.
Many agricultural workers are unaware that they can return to their fields during peak harvest season, even though the government has eased tough coronavirus lockdown for farmers.
As per a research report, trust about India's ability to overcome the coronavirus health crisis is high among consumers but belief about India's ability to recover from the economic crisis is considerably lower.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex moved above the 32000 level intra-day on Mon. Apr 20, and closed above its 20 day EMA for the 2nd week in a row. However, FIIs and DIIs were both net sellers of equity. The index ended the week with a loss of about 260 points (0.8%).
The index has been consolidating with an upward bias within a bearish 'rising wedge' pattern for the past 5 weeks. An expected downward breakout from the pattern can lead to a test of the Mar 24th low of 25639.
Daily technical indicators are giving mixed signals. MACD is rising above its signal line towards its neutral zone. RSI is hovering at its neutral zone. Slow stochastic has fallen from its overbought zone, and gradually moving down.
Stock market analysts were hoping for a proper stimulus package to revive a faltering economy. All they got were a few dribs and drabs. There does not appear to be any co-ordinated plan for controlling the virus spread, rehabilitating migrant labour and fixing a destroyed supply chain. All will not be well if the lockdown is lifted on May 4.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty continued to consolidate within a bearish 'rising wedge' pattern, and closed below its 200 week EMA for the 7th straight week. The index slipped about 112 points (1.2%) on a weekly closing basis.
The 20 week EMA has crossed below the 200 week EMA for the first time in 9 years. All three weekly EMAs are falling, which is a sign of a long-term bear market. The 'death cross' of the 50 week EMA below the 200 week EMA - which will technically confirm a long-term bear market - is still awaited.
The sharp counter-trend rally on Nifty chart from the Mar '20 low of 7511 is showing signs of petering out with FIIs and DIIs in selling mode during the week. An expected downward breakout from the 'rising wedge' pattern can drop the index to test its Mar '20 low.
Weekly technical indicators are giving mixed signals. MACD is below its signal line inside its oversold zone, but its downward momentum has stalled. RSI has emerged from its oversold zone, but is not showing any upward momentum. Slow stochastic has bounced up sharply towards its overbought zone. The pullback rally seems over.
Nifty's TTM P/E has moved down to 20.48, but remains above its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has fallen inside its neutral zone, hinting at some near-term index consolidation or a correction.
Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are trading well below their respective 200 day and 200 week EMAs within bearish 'rising wedge' patterns. Extension of the corona virus lockdown till May 3 is likely to push an already weak economy into a recession. Small investors can continue with their SIPs, but should stay away from bargain-hunting.
Many agricultural workers are unaware that they can return to their fields during peak harvest season, even though the government has eased tough coronavirus lockdown for farmers.
As per a research report, trust about India's ability to overcome the coronavirus health crisis is high among consumers but belief about India's ability to recover from the economic crisis is considerably lower.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex moved above the 32000 level intra-day on Mon. Apr 20, and closed above its 20 day EMA for the 2nd week in a row. However, FIIs and DIIs were both net sellers of equity. The index ended the week with a loss of about 260 points (0.8%).
The index has been consolidating with an upward bias within a bearish 'rising wedge' pattern for the past 5 weeks. An expected downward breakout from the pattern can lead to a test of the Mar 24th low of 25639.
Daily technical indicators are giving mixed signals. MACD is rising above its signal line towards its neutral zone. RSI is hovering at its neutral zone. Slow stochastic has fallen from its overbought zone, and gradually moving down.
Stock market analysts were hoping for a proper stimulus package to revive a faltering economy. All they got were a few dribs and drabs. There does not appear to be any co-ordinated plan for controlling the virus spread, rehabilitating migrant labour and fixing a destroyed supply chain. All will not be well if the lockdown is lifted on May 4.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty continued to consolidate within a bearish 'rising wedge' pattern, and closed below its 200 week EMA for the 7th straight week. The index slipped about 112 points (1.2%) on a weekly closing basis.
The 20 week EMA has crossed below the 200 week EMA for the first time in 9 years. All three weekly EMAs are falling, which is a sign of a long-term bear market. The 'death cross' of the 50 week EMA below the 200 week EMA - which will technically confirm a long-term bear market - is still awaited.
The sharp counter-trend rally on Nifty chart from the Mar '20 low of 7511 is showing signs of petering out with FIIs and DIIs in selling mode during the week. An expected downward breakout from the 'rising wedge' pattern can drop the index to test its Mar '20 low.
Weekly technical indicators are giving mixed signals. MACD is below its signal line inside its oversold zone, but its downward momentum has stalled. RSI has emerged from its oversold zone, but is not showing any upward momentum. Slow stochastic has bounced up sharply towards its overbought zone. The pullback rally seems over.
Nifty's TTM P/E has moved down to 20.48, but remains above its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has fallen inside its neutral zone, hinting at some near-term index consolidation or a correction.
Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are trading well below their respective 200 day and 200 week EMAs within bearish 'rising wedge' patterns. Extension of the corona virus lockdown till May 3 is likely to push an already weak economy into a recession. Small investors can continue with their SIPs, but should stay away from bargain-hunting.
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