Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Dec 18, 2019)

FIIs were net buyers of equity during the first three trading days this week. Their total net buying was worth Rs 38.1 Billion. DIIs were net sellers of equity on all three trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 29.7 Billion, as per provisional figures.

India's WPI-based inflation rose 0.58% in Nov '19 against 0.16% in Oct '19 due to increase in prices of food items. WPI inflation was 4.47% in Nov '18.

There are a few green shoots of revival visible in the Indian economy. During Nov '19, passenger air traffic volume rose 11.2%, fuel demand rose 10%, bitumen consumption indicated increase in road construction.



The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty rose to touch new intra-day (12237.70) and closing (12221.65) highs today (Dec 18), on the back of strong buying by FIIs. In the process, the index pierced and closed above the upper Bollinger Band.

All three EMAs are rising, and the index is trading above them in a bull market. The rally continues to be led by a few large-cap stocks, like RIL, HDFC. Mid-cap and small-cap stocks are continuing to struggle.

Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and showing upward momentum. MACD has crossed above its falling signal line in bullish zone. RSI is rising above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has entered its overbought zone. 

All three indicators are showing negative divergences by touching lower tops while the index rose to touch a new high. A corrective move may follow.

Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 28.48 - its highest level this month, and well inside its overbought zone. After a sharp fall from its oversold zone, the breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is rising in neutral zone, hinting at some near-term index downside.

Part resolution of US-China trade dispute has encouraged bulls in global stock markets. However, a possible impeachment process of the US President can trigger some profit booking.

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