FIIs were net sellers of equity on three out of the five trading days. Their total net selling during the week was worth Rs 16.5 Billion. DIIs were net buyers of equity on four out of the five trading days. Their net buying was worth Rs 8.2 Billion.
Sensex and Nifty are in the midst of counter-trend rallies that are retracing the entire falls from their Jan '18 tops to their Mar '18 lows. Sensex gained 1.7% and Nifty gained 1.4% on a weekly closing basis.
India's trade deficit widened to US $156.8 Billion in FY 17-18 against $108.5 Billion in FY 16-17. Exports grew 9.8% to $302.8 Billion, but imports grew 19.6% to $459.7 Billion.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The following remarks were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "Sensex is trying to retrace the 3960 points fall from the Jan 29 top of 36444 to the Mar 23 low of 32484. Fibonacci retracement levels of 38.2% and 50% means near-term upward index targets of about 34000 to 34450."
The dotted box on the chart represents the zone between 34000 and 34450. Sensex crossed above the resistance level of 33800, and closed in the middle of the resistance zone.
Bears can be expected to defend the resistance zone - and may get extra impetus from Saturday's (Apr 14) missile attack on Syria by USA, UK and France that can send oil prices higher.
Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line and has re-entered bullish territory after two months. ROC and Slow stochastic are inside their respective overbought zones. RSI appears ready to enter its overbought zone.
Sensex has been in an up trend since touching its Mar 23 low, and closed above its three EMAs in bull territory. Can it rally further? The possibility can't be ruled out. The 132 points 'gap' formed on Feb 5 is likely to provide strong overhead resistance.
Incidentally, the trend-deciding 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 3960 points fall from the Jan 29 top to the Mar 23 low is at 34931 - which is bang in the middle of the 'gap'.
As per 'gap theory', an index (or stock) should resume its previous trend after a 'gap' gets partly or completely filled. Sensex was already falling when the 'gap' was formed. It should resume its down trend if and when the 'gap' gets filled.
What should small investors do? Check Q4 (Mar '18) results and take stock specific buy/sell decisions instead of worrying about index movements.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty crossed above its 20 week EMA into bull territory, but is facing resistance from the zone between 10490 & 10550.
Note that the 10550 level - which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1220 points fall from the Jan '18 top to the Mar '18 low - may provide strong resistance.
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which technical experts often use as a trend-deciding level, is at 10706 - right in the middle of the 33 points 'gap' formed on Feb 5. Bears can be expected to become active if the index rallies further towards the 'gap'.
Weekly technical indicators are turning bullish, and hinting at some more upside. MACD has stopped falling, and is moving sideways below its falling signal line in positive zone. ROC is about to cross above its falling 10 week MA in bearish zone. RSI is in neutral zone. Slow stochastic has emerged from its oversold zone.
Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 26.01 - which is much above its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has fallen sharply from its oversold zone, and can cap index upside.
Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are in the midst of counter-trend rallies that have reached resistance zones. Some correction and/or consolidation is likely. Await Q4 (Mar '18) results before deciding to buy/sell.
Sensex and Nifty are in the midst of counter-trend rallies that are retracing the entire falls from their Jan '18 tops to their Mar '18 lows. Sensex gained 1.7% and Nifty gained 1.4% on a weekly closing basis.
India's trade deficit widened to US $156.8 Billion in FY 17-18 against $108.5 Billion in FY 16-17. Exports grew 9.8% to $302.8 Billion, but imports grew 19.6% to $459.7 Billion.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The following remarks were made in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of Sensex: "Sensex is trying to retrace the 3960 points fall from the Jan 29 top of 36444 to the Mar 23 low of 32484. Fibonacci retracement levels of 38.2% and 50% means near-term upward index targets of about 34000 to 34450."
The dotted box on the chart represents the zone between 34000 and 34450. Sensex crossed above the resistance level of 33800, and closed in the middle of the resistance zone.
Bears can be expected to defend the resistance zone - and may get extra impetus from Saturday's (Apr 14) missile attack on Syria by USA, UK and France that can send oil prices higher.
Daily technical indicators are looking bullish and overbought. MACD is rising above its signal line and has re-entered bullish territory after two months. ROC and Slow stochastic are inside their respective overbought zones. RSI appears ready to enter its overbought zone.
Sensex has been in an up trend since touching its Mar 23 low, and closed above its three EMAs in bull territory. Can it rally further? The possibility can't be ruled out. The 132 points 'gap' formed on Feb 5 is likely to provide strong overhead resistance.
Incidentally, the trend-deciding 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 3960 points fall from the Jan 29 top to the Mar 23 low is at 34931 - which is bang in the middle of the 'gap'.
As per 'gap theory', an index (or stock) should resume its previous trend after a 'gap' gets partly or completely filled. Sensex was already falling when the 'gap' was formed. It should resume its down trend if and when the 'gap' gets filled.
What should small investors do? Check Q4 (Mar '18) results and take stock specific buy/sell decisions instead of worrying about index movements.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty crossed above its 20 week EMA into bull territory, but is facing resistance from the zone between 10490 & 10550.
Note that the 10550 level - which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1220 points fall from the Jan '18 top to the Mar '18 low - may provide strong resistance.
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which technical experts often use as a trend-deciding level, is at 10706 - right in the middle of the 33 points 'gap' formed on Feb 5. Bears can be expected to become active if the index rallies further towards the 'gap'.
Weekly technical indicators are turning bullish, and hinting at some more upside. MACD has stopped falling, and is moving sideways below its falling signal line in positive zone. ROC is about to cross above its falling 10 week MA in bearish zone. RSI is in neutral zone. Slow stochastic has emerged from its oversold zone.
Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 26.01 - which is much above its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) has fallen sharply from its oversold zone, and can cap index upside.
Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are in the midst of counter-trend rallies that have reached resistance zones. Some correction and/or consolidation is likely. Await Q4 (Mar '18) results before deciding to buy/sell.
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