Monday, March 12, 2018

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Mar 09, 2018): bulls fighting back

S&P 500 index chart pattern


The daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 rallied above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs after forming a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close) on Mar 2.

On Fri. Mar 9, the index formed an upward 'gap' of 11 points and rose to close at the highest point of the day (2786.57). In the process, the index appears to have broken out above a large 'triangle' pattern.

It may be a bit early for bulls to start celebrating. Last week's rally was accompanied by sliding volumes. Also, the index needs to move convincingly above the Feb 27 top of 2789 for bulls to regain control.

Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD has entered positive territory above its signal line. RSI has moved above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has bounced up from its 50% level.

Trump's import tariff on steel and aluminium may evolve into a global trade war, as the EU has threatened to retaliate. That will not be a desirable outcome for the global economy and stock markets.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed above its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones. MACD is below its signal line. RSI and Slow stochastic are showing upward momentum.

FTSE 100 index chart pattern



The daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 shows bulls are fighting back. By touching a slightly lower intra-day low of 7062 on Mar 5 and forming a 'reversal day' bar (lower low, higher close), the index appears to have formed a 'double bottom' reversal pattern.

The subsequent rally took the index above the long-term 'support/resistance' level of 7200, where the falling 20 day EMA is providing resistance. 

The 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA has technically confirmed a bear market. Bulls have a lot of work left to regain any control. 

The Feb 27 top of 7326 is the first hurdle that needs to be crossed. Only then will the 'double bottom' pattern receive technical confirmation.

Daily technical indicators are turning bullish. MACD has crossed above its signal line in bearish zone. RSI is trying to move up in bearish zone.  Slow stochastic has crossed above its 50% level to enter bullish zone. 

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index appears to have formed a 'double bottom' reversal pattern and closed above 7200. It remains below its 20 week and 50 week EMAs but above its 200 week EMA in a long-term bull market. Weekly MACD and Slow stochastic are sliding down inside their oversold zones. RSI is falling below its 50% level.

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