Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Nifty chart: a midweek technical update (Oct 04 ‘17)

FIIs were net sellers of equity worth Rs 13.2 Billion during the two days of trading this week, as per provisional figures. DIIs were net buyers of equity worth Rs 21.4 Billion.

After a breakout below a 'rising wedge' pattern, Nifty received good support from the 9700 level and started a pullback rally that closed above 9900 today.

Passenger vehicles had robust sales in Sep '17. Maruti showed growth of 9.6% over Sep '16 sales, while M&M and Hyundai reported growths of 23% and 17.4%. Tata Motors and Toyota had muted growth of 5.7% and 2.2%.

As was widely expected, RBI maintained interest rate status quo at today's policy meeting announcement. Only SLR was cut by 50 bps to 19.5%.



The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty had breached the 9700 support level intra-day on Sep 28, but bounced up after touching a low of 9688 - testing its previous low of 9686 (touched on Aug 11).

That was a trigger for a pullback rally towards the 'rising wedge'. Resistance from the 20 day EMA halted the rally today. 

By touching an intra-day high of 9938, the index has retraced 50% of its recent fall from the Sep 19 top of 10179 to the Sep 28 low of 9688. However, the rally needs to continue beyond 10000 for bulls to regain some control.

Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones, but showing upward momentum. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is falling in neutral zone. Some more upside is possible.

Note that Nifty's TTM P/E has moved up to 25.75 - which is much higher than its long-term average. High index valuation is one of the main reasons why FIIs are selling.

Nifty is trading well above its rising 200 day EMA in a bull market. That means dips are supposed to be buying opportunities. However, with FIIs selling continuously - and they may use the pullback rally to sell more - it is better to err on the side of caution.

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