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Monday, April 10, 2017

S&P 500 and FTSE 100 charts (Apr 07 '17): bears put up strong road blocks

S&P 500 index chart pattern

The following comment had appeared in last week's post on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: "A convincing move above the purple down trend line (currently at about 2375) is required for bulls to regain complete control."

On Wed. Apr 5, the index crossed above the purple down trend line intra-day and touched a high of 2380, but dropped down to close below its 20 day EMA. The index closed about 7 points lower for the week.

The purple down trend line has been acting as a strong resistance after the index touched a lifetime high of 2401 on Mar 1 '17. Bears will have the upper hand till the index can move convincingly above the trend line.

Daily technical indicators are moving sideways in neutral zones. Some more consolidation below the trend line is possible.

Lower than expected US job growth and cruise missile attack on a Syrian airfield helped the cause of bears.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed well above its three rising weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators have corrected overbought conditions, and are showing downward momentum.

FTSE 100 index chart pattern

After touching a lifetime high of 7447 on Mar 17, the daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 corrected 190 points (2.5%), and has been consolidating sideways within a 'rectangle' (shaded) pattern for the past three weeks.

A 'rectangle' is usually a continuation pattern. Since the index entered the 'rectangle' from above, it should eventually break down below the 'rectangle'. 

However, a 'rectangle' can also act as a 'reversal' pattern. So, an upward break out can't be ruled out. Either way, a 130 points move (height of the 'rectangle') can be expected from the break out point.

Daily technical indicators are in neutral zones. Only Slow stochastic is showing upward momentum.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index closed 26 points higher for the week - well above its three rising weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones. Slow stochastic formed a 'double top' reversal pattern inside its overbought zone - which is a bearish sign.

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