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Tuesday, August 9, 2016

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: short covering rallies on OPEC output freeze speculation

WTI Crude Oil chart


The daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude Oil formed a 'rounding top' reversal pattern (clearly visible on the 20 day and 50 day EMAs) during the past three months, and corrected below all three EMAs into bear territory.

The following remarks appeared in the previous post: "All three daily technical indicators are in bearish zones and showing downward momentum - hinting at some more correction. Slow stochastic is inside its oversold zone, and showing positive divergence by not falling lower with oil's price. A pullback towards the 200 day EMA is likely." 

After falling below the 40 level for the first time since Apr 18, oil's price pulled back sharply towards its 200 day EMA due to short covering - but is facing resistance from its falling 20 day EMA.

Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones after correcting oversold conditions, and are showing good upward momentum. Some more upside is likely. If volumes continue to slide, the rally may stall in the 44-46 zone.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price is trading below its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish.

Brent Crude Oil chart



The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude Oil formed a 'rounding top' reversal pattern (clearly visible on the 50 day EMA) during the past three months, and corrected below all three EMAs into bear territory.

The following remarks appeared in the previous post: "More correction is on the cards. Slow stochastic is showing positive divergence by not falling lower with oil's price. That can lead to a pullback to the 200 day EMA." 

Oil's price dropped below the 42 level for the first time since Apr 18, but pulled back sharply towards its 200 day EMA - aided by short covering on speculation of an output freeze that may or may not be announced at OPEC's informal meeting in end-Sept. '16.

The 'death cross' of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA that would have technically confirmed a return to a bear market has been prevented for the time being. The rally is likely to face resistance from the zone between 46-48.

After correcting oversold conditions, daily technical indicators are in bearish zones and showing good upward momentum. Some more upside is likely.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil's price is trading below its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish.

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