Sunday, February 7, 2016

Stock Chart Pattern - LIC Housing Finance (an update)

The previous post was written more than 5 years ago after the company's stock suffered a big sell-off following reports that top officials were involved in a major bribe-for-loan scam.

Several officials alleged to be involved in the scam, including the CEO and a number of PSU bank executives, were arrested. CBI conducted raids in six cities to uncover incriminating documents.

Time is a great healer and public memory is short. One look at the 2 years daily closing chart of LIC Housing Finance will prove the veracity of the two proverbs.

After forming a small 'double bottom' pattern at 157 (for the Rs 2 face value stock) during Aug-Sep '13, the stock embarked on a strong bull rally that touched a closing high of 523.60 in Aug '15 - gaining more than 230% in less than 2 years.

Along the way, the stock faced a couple of decent corrections that were preceded by all four daily technical indicators showing negative divergences by touching lower tops (marked by blue arrows) while the stock moved higher.

From Aug '15 onward, the stock has been consolidating sideways within a 'pennant' (i.e. narrow triangle) pattern, from which a break out can occur in either direction.

Despite trading below its three EMAs in bear territory, the stock is in a long-term bull market because the 200 day EMA is still rising. However, the chart will turn bearish if the stock breaks down below the 'pennant'.

Daily technical indicators are in bearish zones, but showing some weak signs of turning around. ROC and RSI are showing positive divergences by not falling lower with the stock price.

The stock is about 15% below its Aug '15 top, and can be accumulated slowly. Alternatively, wait for a convincing break out above the 'pennant' to enter.

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