Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Nifty chart: a mid-week update (Sep 03 ‘14)

The surprisingly high GDP number - though on a higher base - seems to have added fuel to the already raging fire started by bulls. New lifetime highs on the Nifty chart are being touched and surpassed on a daily basis.

When an index is in blue-sky territory with no known resistances, there is a tendency of resistances to occur at nice round levels. Strangely, 7900 proved to be a stronger resistance than 8000. So, how far is this rally going to stretch?

Some look at Fibonacci levels to gauge the next higher target. However, Fibonacci levels tend to work better as retracement levels. At times like these, it is better to hold on to existing portfolios and enjoy the ride, instead of looking for new stock ideas to pile on to.

FIIs have continued with their buying mode, and have already pumped in a net Rs 2500 Crores into the equity market during the first 3 days of this month. DIIs are unsuccessfully trying to keep the index from running away by turning net sellers.

Volumes have picked up a bit, but not enough to sustain this rally for long. MACD, RSI and Slow stochastic are in their respective overbought zones, but failed to touch new highs with the index. The combined negative divergences can lead to some consolidation or correction at any time. ROC is looking a bit bearish by slipping below its 10 day MA.

If you are new to the market and anxious to jump on to the bull bandwagon, think about starting a SIP in a good equity fund instead of trying your luck with individual stocks. There will be less chance of losing money.

Ignore the predictions of '10000 by Diwali' and '12000 by Dec'. Concentrate on your own portfolios. Resist the temptation of booking 10-15% profits in good stocks. If you are sitting on large profits in mid-cap or small-cap stocks, take out part profits and reinvest in large-cap stocks already in your portfolios.

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