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Sunday, January 29, 2012

BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 index chart patterns – Jan 27 ‘12

The following concluding comment was made in last week’s analysis of the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 index chart patterns: “…a flood of FII buying can throw all analysis out of the window.” The deluge of FII buying drowned DII selling, and overbought conditions in the market became even more overbought.

Reminds me of the title of a funny Jack Nicholson movie: Something’s gotta give. Technicals are pointing to a correction at any time, but the market just keeps marching up. Benjamin Graham had said that in the short-term, the market acts like a voting machine. FIIs are definitely voting for a return to a bull market. Q3 results declared so far continue to demonstrate pressure on the bottom lines, even as there have been some growth in top lines.

BSE Sensex index chart

SENSEX_Jan2712

The BSE Sensex weekly bar has just about managed to close above its 50 week EMA and is only 100 odd points below the upper edge of the downward-sloping channel (within which it has traded during the past 15 months). If the FIIs continue their buying spree, the index may breach the channel on the upside and return to a bull market.

The technical indicators are looking bullish and supporting the up move. The MACD has crossed above its signal line, but remains in negative territory. The ROC has risen sharply above its 10 week MA. The RSI has edged above its 50% level. So has the slow stochastic.

Note that the technical indicators were in a similar bullish state during the previous rally in Oct ‘11, but the bear market rally fizzled out near the top end of the channel. Will the Sensex behave differently this time? Only FIIs can provide the answer.

NSE Nifty 50 index chart

Nifty_Jan2712

The NSE Nifty daily chart is looking bullish to the point of being heavily overbought. The index climbed above the 200 day EMA on a volume surge and has reached the top of the downward-sloping channel. The 20 day EMA has crossed above the 50 day EMA, and though both EMAs are rising they remain well below the 200 day EMA.

The rally has been too fast and too steep, which is typical of bear market rallies. The technical indicators are looking quite overbought. The MACD is above its signal line, and both are rising in positive territory. The ROC is also positive, and rising above its 10 day MA. The RSI and the slow stochastic are well inside their respective overbought zones.

The Nifty can remain overbought for long periods, but a correction, even a short one, will restore the technical health of the index. Otherwise, the bulls may get tired of buying and allow the bears to resume their control.

Bottomline? The BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 index chart patterns had strong bear market rallies from their Dec '11 lows, and have reached the top end of their downward-sloping channels. Will they be able to break out of the bear grips finally? Technically, yes. Fundamentally, no. Nothing has changed much from the time that the Dec ‘11 lows were touched. Interest rates remain at their high points. Same with oil price. Balance of payments continue to deteriorate. Nothing is happening in the policy or reforms front. Inflation has moderated a bit, but that has more to do with the base effect. The Rupee has strengthened, mainly due to the FII inflows. This still looks like a sucker’s rally – but betting against the market can be hazardous to your wealth. Enjoy the ride while it lasts.

3 comments:

share.bhavesh said...

Nice read & good stuff sir...Keep posting.

CHINTAN PATEL said...

this is similar rally which I have again missed is because of cheap money from USA fed. As long as interest rates are low the rally will remain in spite of all non conviction by fundamentalist.
WE always afraid of buying and loose the oportunities
actually this is for this post

Subhankar said...

@Bhavesh: Thanks for your comment.

@Chintan: I can appreciate that 'missed out' feeling. It comes from not understanding or appreciating the need for a financial plan and an asset allocation plan.

Once you have plans in place, the market will no longer control your portfolio - you will; because the plan will tell you when to buy, when to sell and when to hold.