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Saturday, September 25, 2010

Stock Index Chart Patterns - BSE Sectoral Indices, Sep 24, '10

I had written a detailed analysis of the NSE Nifty index chart pattern yesterday. Hope you liked reading it. On Tuesday and Thursday, I had written about the investment tactics to follow after the Sensex chart touched the 20000 mark.

Instead of writing a detailed analysis of the BSE Sensex index chart pattern today, I thought of taking a look at the BSE Sectoral index chart patterns. My previous look at the BSE Sectoral indices was back in May ‘10, when almost all the indices were under some selling pressure.

It will be interesting to see if the Sectoral indices are near their 52 week highs or not. The ones that are not, could be on the sector-rotation target of the bulls. Here are the charts:

BSE Auto Index

BSE Auto Index

The BSE Auto index is in a confirmed bull market – making higher tops and bottoms. No sign of the prolonged consolidation of the Sensex. Consumer vehicles, cars, two-wheelers are all enjoying booming sales.

BSE Bankex

BSE BANKEX

The BSE Bankex consolidated sideways till Jul ‘10, before breaking out in Aug ‘10. After a brief pullback, it has raced away along with the Sensex. The banking system is the backbone of a strong financial system. Thanks to prompt RBI interventions at appropriate times, the banks have emerged stronger from the 2008 downturn.

BSE Capital Goods Index

BSE Capital Goods Index

The BSE Capital Goods index consolidated sideways till Jun ‘10; gave a false breakout in Jul ‘10; consolidated some more in Aug ‘10 before finally breaking out to touch its 52 week high last week. The Capital Goods sector hasn’t performed as well as the Auto index and the Bankex – but their time will come.

BSE Consumer Durables Index

BSE Consumer Durables Index

The BSE Consumer Durables index has been one of the better performers in the past 12 months, and remains in a strong bull market.

BSE FMCG Index

BSE FMCG Index

The BSE FMCG index went nowhere till May ‘10; broke out upwards in Jun ‘10; consolidated sideways in Jul ‘10. From Aug ‘10 onwards, it has been rising in a parabola, and looks like it isn’t done yet.

BSE Healthcare Index

BSE Healthcare Index

The BSE Healthcare index has been in a steady bull market with occasional corrections. The upward momentum seems to be slowing down a bit.

BSE IT Index

BSE IT Index 

The BSE IT index has understandably not performed all that well – due to the poor recovery of the European and US economies. It broke out of a long sideways consolidation earlier this month.

BSE Metal Index

BSE Metal Index

The BSE Metal index has been one of the poor performers, and is far below its 52 week high touched in Apr ‘10. That may be an opportunity for savvy investors.

BSE Midcap Index

BSE Mid-Cap

The BSE Midcap index broke above a long sideways consolidation in Jul ‘10 and has since been moving up steadily, rather than sharply. Looks like there is steam left in this rally.

BSE Oil & Gas Index

BSE Oil & Gas Index

The BSE Oil & Gas index has gone neither up nor down, and been one of the disappointments – thanks to meddling by the Government in the oil PSUs, and lacklustre performances by Aban and RIL. Diesel price decontrol may improve the sector’s prospects.

BSE Power Index

BSE Power Index

The BSE Power index has been an underperformer and remains below the 52 week high touched back in Jan ‘10. This sector has been hyped up too much and has delivered too little. Power theft and transmission losses need to be curbed.

BSE PSU Index

BSE PSU

The BSE PSU index has formed a cup-and-handle pattern which could lead to a strong up move. The index comprises companies that are a part of many of the other sectoral indices – like Bankex, Power, Oil & Gas.

BSE Realty Index

BSE Realty Index

The BSE Realty index, one of the stars of the previous bull market, has been the worst performer in the past year. It is trying to emerge from a severe bear attack, and is not out of the woods yet. Just because it is performing badly does not make it a good contrarian play.

BSE Smallcap Index

BSE Small-Cap

The BSE Smallcap index is in fine fettle, and going from strength to strength. Please remember that there are more than 500 stocks that comprise the index – some of them are real gems, and others are complete junk. So stock selection has to be done very carefully.

2 comments:

Nishit Vadhavkar said...

Excellent Post Sir. You should do this at least once a month.

Subhankar said...

Thanks for the comment and suggestion. Consider it done.