FIIs
were net sellers of equity on all five trading days. Their total net selling was worth Rs 69.2 Billion. DIIs
were net sellers of equity on Mon. and Fri. (May 18 and 22), but net buyers on the other three trading days. Their total net buying was
worth Rs 39.38 Billion, as per provisional figures.
RBI preponed the MPC meeting to reduce repo rate by 40 bps (to 4%) in a bid to inject more liquidity into the monetary system, after the market was disappointed by PM's Rs 20 Trillion 'stimulus' announcement. Rising food inflation and looming recession can lead to stagflation.
India's crude oil imports in Apr '20 fell 12.4% YoY to 17.28 million tonnes, thanks to low demand during the corona virus lockdown. Oil product imports dropped 6.5% to 3.35 million tonnes. However, refined products exports rose 37% YoY to 6.04 million tonnes.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex fell sharply on Mon. May 18 and slipped below the psychological 30000 level intra-day. It rallied for the next three days, but failed to overcome resistance from the sliding 20 day EMA. The index closed 425 points (1.4%) lower for the week.
Sensex had touched an intermediate top of 33887 on Apr 30, retracing 49.6% of its fall from the Jan 20 top (42274) to the Mar 24 low (25639). By stopping just short of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, and forming an 'island reversal' pattern thereafter, the bear market rally got terminated.
All three EMAs are falling, and the index is trading below them. The bear market has completed three months, and there are still no signs of bottom formation. Corporate performance during the first half of the financial year will not be good. The second half will depend on how well the corona virus gets contained.
Daily technical indicators are giving mixed signals. MACD has slipped below its signal line in neutral zone. RSI has hovering below its 50% level. Slow stochastic has risen sharply from its oversold zone and crossed above its 50% level. Some near-term index upside is a possibility.
RIL's huge rights issue at a substantial premium is open for subscription till June 9th. Don't expect the index to fall much till then.
Many analysts are already calling a bottom at the Mar '20 low. Previous bear markets have never ended at the first low. Small investors should be prepared for a long haul. If you have spare cash, invest in small tranches.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty gave a thumbs down to FM's explanations about the so-called Rs 20 Trillion economic stimulus, and closed below its three weekly EMAs for the 11th straight week. The index lost about 98 points (1.1%) on a weekly closing basis.
The sharp bear market rally from the Mar '20 low of 7511 to the Apr 30th intermediate top of 9889 retraced 48.3% of the fall from the Jan '20 top. Nifty fell just short of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level - terminating the rally. It has since closed lower for three consecutive weeks, but managed to stay above the psychological 9000 level.
The 20 week EMA crossed below the 200 week EMA some time back. All three weekly EMAs are falling, which is a sign of a long-term bear market. The 'death cross' of the 50 week EMA below the 200 week EMA - which will technically confirm a long-term bear market - is awaited but appears imminent.
Weekly technical indicators are in bearish zones. MACD is moving sideways below its falling signal line inside oversold zone. RSI is sliding down in bearish zone. Slow stochastic has dropped sharply below its 50% level. Some more index downside is likely.
Nifty's TTM P/E has remained flat at 20.97 but above its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is rising inside neutral zone, hinting at near-term index correction or consolidation.
Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are trading well below their respective 200 day and 200 week EMAs in bear markets. Positive corona virus cases continue to increase rapidly after easing of lockdown restrictions. India's economy is slipping into a recession. Protect your cash. Invest only in small quantities.
RBI preponed the MPC meeting to reduce repo rate by 40 bps (to 4%) in a bid to inject more liquidity into the monetary system, after the market was disappointed by PM's Rs 20 Trillion 'stimulus' announcement. Rising food inflation and looming recession can lead to stagflation.
India's crude oil imports in Apr '20 fell 12.4% YoY to 17.28 million tonnes, thanks to low demand during the corona virus lockdown. Oil product imports dropped 6.5% to 3.35 million tonnes. However, refined products exports rose 37% YoY to 6.04 million tonnes.
BSE Sensex index chart pattern
The daily bar chart pattern of Sensex fell sharply on Mon. May 18 and slipped below the psychological 30000 level intra-day. It rallied for the next three days, but failed to overcome resistance from the sliding 20 day EMA. The index closed 425 points (1.4%) lower for the week.
Sensex had touched an intermediate top of 33887 on Apr 30, retracing 49.6% of its fall from the Jan 20 top (42274) to the Mar 24 low (25639). By stopping just short of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, and forming an 'island reversal' pattern thereafter, the bear market rally got terminated.
All three EMAs are falling, and the index is trading below them. The bear market has completed three months, and there are still no signs of bottom formation. Corporate performance during the first half of the financial year will not be good. The second half will depend on how well the corona virus gets contained.
Daily technical indicators are giving mixed signals. MACD has slipped below its signal line in neutral zone. RSI has hovering below its 50% level. Slow stochastic has risen sharply from its oversold zone and crossed above its 50% level. Some near-term index upside is a possibility.
RIL's huge rights issue at a substantial premium is open for subscription till June 9th. Don't expect the index to fall much till then.
Many analysts are already calling a bottom at the Mar '20 low. Previous bear markets have never ended at the first low. Small investors should be prepared for a long haul. If you have spare cash, invest in small tranches.
NSE Nifty index chart pattern
The weekly bar chart pattern of Nifty gave a thumbs down to FM's explanations about the so-called Rs 20 Trillion economic stimulus, and closed below its three weekly EMAs for the 11th straight week. The index lost about 98 points (1.1%) on a weekly closing basis.
The sharp bear market rally from the Mar '20 low of 7511 to the Apr 30th intermediate top of 9889 retraced 48.3% of the fall from the Jan '20 top. Nifty fell just short of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level - terminating the rally. It has since closed lower for three consecutive weeks, but managed to stay above the psychological 9000 level.
The 20 week EMA crossed below the 200 week EMA some time back. All three weekly EMAs are falling, which is a sign of a long-term bear market. The 'death cross' of the 50 week EMA below the 200 week EMA - which will technically confirm a long-term bear market - is awaited but appears imminent.
Weekly technical indicators are in bearish zones. MACD is moving sideways below its falling signal line inside oversold zone. RSI is sliding down in bearish zone. Slow stochastic has dropped sharply below its 50% level. Some more index downside is likely.
Nifty's TTM P/E has remained flat at 20.97 but above its long-term average. The breadth indicator NSE TRIN (not shown) is rising inside neutral zone, hinting at near-term index correction or consolidation.
Bottomline? Sensex and Nifty charts are trading well below their respective 200 day and 200 week EMAs in bear markets. Positive corona virus cases continue to increase rapidly after easing of lockdown restrictions. India's economy is slipping into a recession. Protect your cash. Invest only in small quantities.
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